First Thing Today (VIP) -- June 6, 2013

June 6, 2013 01:31 AM


CORN AND WHEAT MIXED, BEANS LOWER OVERNIGHT... As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn and wheat futures are narrowly mixed, while soybeans are mostly 2 to 7 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is weaker this morning.

SENATE FARM BILL CLOTURE VOTE TODAY... The Senate today is expected to provide the 60 votes necessary to limit debate and to help dispose of amendments that have slowed progress on the five-year bill. As of Wednesday, there was no agreement on which amendments would be voted on, but if a last-minute deal is worked out, there is still a slight chance the farm bill vote could occur yet today. If not, it will be a Monday vote.

FAO FORECASTS HIGHER GLOBAL WHEAT, CORN PRODUCTION... World wheat production for 2013-14 is forecast to be record-large at 702 MMT, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). That would be a 6.5% rise from 2012-13 due primarily to expected production increases in Europe and the Black Sea region. FAO forecasts 2013-14 global corn production to rise by 10% to 963 MMT on an expected bigger U.S. crop. Meanwhile, the FAO world food price index averaged 215.2 in May, down marginally from April. Lower dairy and sugar prices offset higher cereal grain prices.

OECD/FAO RELEASES AG OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT DECADE... Global agricultural production is expected to grow 1.5% per year on average over the coming decade (2013-22), compared with annual growth of 2.1% from 2003-2012, according to joint report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and FAO. World prices are forecast to remain above historical averages over the medium term for both crop and livestock products due to a combination of slower production growth and stronger demand, including for biofuels. The report says production shortfalls, price volatility and trade disruption remain a threat to global food security. For China, the OECD/FAO report forecasts demand to outpace production by 0.3% per year during the next 10 years. The report sees China importing more meat and oilseeds during that span. Chinese meat imports are seen rising 3% per year to 1.7 MMT by 2022 -- beef imports are expected to see the fastest growth at 7% per year. Chinese oilseed imports are forecast to rise by 41% over the 10-year period to 83 MMT by 2022. Chinese feedgrain imports are seen rising to 13.2 MMT by 2022. Chinese cotton imports are forecast to fall to 1.9 MMT by 2022 due to falling domestic demand.

BRAZIL'S PRESIDENT SIGNS PORT PRIVATIZATION INTO LAW... Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff signed into law on Wednesday new regulations to make its ports more efficient and attract up to $12 billion dollars in investments, including private investment, according to MercoPress. Brazil's government says expanding private sector participation in Brazil's port operations will increase competition between port operators and result in lower charges for the handling of cargo and less bottlenecks at ports.

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES REPORT OUT THIS MORNING... For the week ended May 30, traders expect: corn sales between 500,000 and 800,000 MT; wheat sales between 300,000 and 600,000 MT; soybean sales between 300,000 and 700,000 MT; soymeal sales between 75,000 an 175,000 MT; and soyoil sales between 30,000 and 40,000 MT.

WEAKER CASH CATTLE EXPECTATIONS... Traders are expecting steady to weaker cash cattle prices compared with last week's mostly $124 trade in the Plains. While packer cutting margins are remain solidly in the black, they have declined amid recent pressure on boxed beef prices and packers don't appear overly eager to buy cattle this week.

CASH HOGS CALLED MIXED... Cash hog bids softened in some locations late Wednesday morning as packers have turned their attention to improving cutting margins. But bids remained steady to firmer in other areas as some plants still need hogs for late-week kills. Cash sources are expecting mixed cash hog bids today amid varied packer demand.

PEDV SPREADS... Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) that was recently detected in U.S. pigs for the first time, has spread to 103 sites in 11 states, according to the head of the American Association of Swine Veterinarians. Liz Wagstrom, National Pork Producers Council chief veterinarian says death loss due to the disease has been high on some farms, but she doesn't know a total death-loss figure. PEDV can be deadly on hog herds, but pork from infected animals is safe for human consumption.

OVERNIGHT DEMAND NEWS... Japan purchased 163,605 MT of wheat in its weekly tender, including 61,140 MT of U.S. wheat. Exporters now say Iran purchased around 600,000 MT of German and Baltic Sea region wheat, up from earlier reports of 200,000 MT.


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