First Thing Today (VIP) -- November 14, 2013

November 14, 2013 12:33 AM
 

GOOD MORNING!

PROFIT-TAKING IN BEANS, POSITIONING IN CORN... Corn futures are again chopping around unchanged as of 6:30 a.m. CT after trading in a narrow trading range overnight. Soybean futures are seeing some profit-taking after yesterday's late move in positive territory. Most contracts are 5 to 7 cents lower. Wheat futures are seeing some short-covering amid ideas the downside has been overdone and overnight demand news. SRW is 4 to 6 cents higher, while HRW and HRS are seeing lighter gains. Crude oil futures continue to hover above key support levels with bears having the advantage this morning. The U.S. dollar index is firmer.

ETHANOL PRODUCTION, DROUGHT MONITOR ON TAP... Due to the Federal holiday on Monday, the Weekly Ethanol Plant Production Report will be released today along with the Climate Prediction Center's Drought Monitor. But the market will have to wait until Friday for USDA's Weekly Export Sales Report.

SOME SENATE DEMOCRATS IN NEAR PANIC MODE OVER OBAMACARE DEBACLE... With anxiety escalating among Senate Democrats over problems connected to the health care overhaul, Senate Democrats will meet today with White House officials to discuss the trouble-plagued rollout. Only 106,185 people picked out private health plans under ObamaCare in its first month, well below the administration’s expectations. Federal officials announced Wednesday that 26,794 of those people had enrolled through HealthCare.gov, the online system with a lot of initial glitches. Lawmakers facing re-election next year such as Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu and Mark Udall of Colorado are calling for action to allow Americans to keep their existing medical insurance plans, even if they do not comply with minimum standards set by the new law. And, several Democratic defections are expected in the House on Friday when the chamber votes on a Republican measure that would allow insurers that provided coverage in the individual market as of Jan. 1, 2013, to continue to offer coverage for one year.

DESPITE REPORTS TO THE CONTRARY, A NEW FARM BILL TIMELINE CAN EXTEND INTO EARLY 2014... Some general media reports have indicated the next two weeks are "critical" as to whether or not there will be a new farm bill this year. That is an overstatement based on past history and reality: Congress could go into early 2014 before elements of permanent legislation would force lawmakers to either again extend the 2008 Farm Bill, or come up with what they are currently trying to get: a conference report for a new farm bill. Our sources still expect a farm bill agreement sometime in December, but they would not be shocked to see an early-2014 end zone either.

DESPITE REPORTS TO THE CONTRARY, A NEW FARM BILL TIMELINE CAN EXTEND INTO EARLY 2014... Some general media reports have indicated the next two weeks are "critical" as to whether or not there will be a new farm bill this year. That is an overstatement based on past history and reality: Congress could go into early 2014 before elements of permanent legislation would force lawmakers to either again extend the 2008 Farm Bill, or come up with what they are currently trying to get: a conference report for a new farm bill. Our sources still expect a farm bill agreement sometime in December, but they would not be shocked to see an early-2014 end zone either.

EURO-ZONE ECONOMY STAGNATES... The euro-zone economy grew by a slower-than-anticipated 0.1% for the third quarter, which compares to 0.3% economic growth for the second quarter. Of concern, France's economy contracted by 0.1%, while German economic growth slowed 0.4 percentage points to 0.3%. This pushed the euro sharply lower against the dollar and reinvigorated talk about the need for more aggressive labor and pension reform in France.

GRAIN ENDING STOCKS IN UKRAINE REBOUND FROM YEAR-AGO... Ukraine's State Statistic Service says the country's grain stocks stand at 23.3 MMT as of Nov. 1, which is up 10% from year-ago. This data does not take on-farm storage into account. Harvest of grain in the country is expected to be record-large at 59 MMT to 60 MMT for 2013, which compares to 46 MMT for last year's drought-stricken crop.

FIRM SAYS EU WHEAT SOWINGS TO RISE IN 2014... Soft wheat area in the European Union for the 2014-15 crop year is expected to rise to 24.1 million hectares, which would be a 4% (900,000 hectare) increase from the 2013-14 growing season, Strategie Grains said in its first look at the upcoming marketing year. The firm says profitable margins are behind the expected increase. Strategie Grains expects corn and barley production to fall by about the same amount, with corn plantings expected to decline 400,000 hectares from the current marketing year to 9.7 million hectares and barley area seen 500,000 hectares lower at 11.7 million hectares.

RUSSIAN GRAIN EXPORTS SLOW... Russian grain exports will likely decline from 2.5 MMT in October to between 2 MMT and 2.1 MMT for the month of November, according to SovEcon. Its analysts say farmers priced themselves out of the world export market when they recently slowed sales in hopes of additional price growth. From July 1 to the end of October, the country has exported 9.3 MMT of grain.

BEEF MARKET CONTINUES TO IMPRESS... Choice boxed beef cuts have backed off their highs, but they remain several bucks above the psychological $200 per cwt. level. Considering this, yesterday's movement of 187 loads following movement of 267 loads Tuesday is highly impressive. This should keep a floor under cash prices.

HOG SUPPLIES CONTINUE TO MOUNT... Hog weights have climbed to record or near-record levels, which makes the fact that some plants paid up for market-ready hog supplies yesterday even more impressive. Packers are enjoying lofty profit margins, which is giving them incentive to kill lines full. Nevertheless, recent action in futures indicates traders expect burgeoning supplies to weigh on cash prices. Meanwhile, the product market has seen a surge pork movement this week, but this has come on softer prices.

OVERNIGHT DEMAND NEWS... Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) tendered for an unspecified amount of soft and/or milling wheat from global suppliers. Egypt also purchased 5,000 MT of soybean oil. Japan bought 129,445 MT of milling wheat, including 60,346 MT of U.S. wheat. The country also bought 10,3900 MT of feed-quality barley. Brazil purchased at least 60,000 MT of U.S. HRW wheat. South Korea's NOFI made no purchase in its tender for 70,00 MT of corn, but flour millers in the country did buy 30,000 MT of U.S. milling wheat.

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close