First Thing Today (VIP) -- November 22, 2013

November 22, 2013 12:27 AM


FOLLOWTHROUGH BUYING IN CORN AND BEANS OVERNIGHT... As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading around 1 cent higher, soybeans are 5 to 12 cents higher and wheat futures are 1 to 3 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is under pressure this morning.

FARM BILL CONFERENCE TALKS AMONG THE 'PRINCIPALS' WILL CONTINUE WITH TELEPHONE SESSION ON MONDAY, NOV. 25... Farm bill negotiators will reportedly talk by phone Monday, Nov. 25, and the full House-Senate conference will meet December 4. The four principals failed to reach an agreement this week due to lingering and deep-seated differences over food stamp funding and policy, and on several commodity title provisions.

SENATE RULE CHANGE ON MOST NOMINATION VOTES SEEN ADVANCING OBAMA AGENDA... Senate action Thursday to allow most nominations (except Supreme Court judges and individual legislation) to be approved on a simple majority vote -- 51 when all senators are present -- is being viewed as a major push for the administration's agenda on a host of fronts. The chamber voted 52-48 to remove the 60-vote requirement for most nominations, paving the way for a series of nominations to key court and administration positions. Some contend the move will ease the path for the administration to act on issues like climate change or other regulatory matters dealing with energy and financial regs if Congress balks.

CHINESE MINISTRY REVISES UP NOVEMBER SOY IMPORT FORECAST... Based on import activity the first half of the month, China's Ministry of Commerce now expects the country to import 6.17 MMT of soybeans in November, up from its prior forecast of 5.95 MMT. The ministry projects December soybean imports to fall to 3.85 MMT.

BIG JUMP IN PLACEMENTS EXPECTED IN COF REPORT... USDA's monthly Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show a 10% rise in the number of cattle placed into feedlots last month amid falling feed prices, improved producer profitability and prospects for strong cash prices into next year. But feedlot numbers will remain well below year-ago. The average pre-report guesses peg On Feed at 94.2%, Placements at 110% and Marketings at 101.5% of year-ago levels.

PORK STOCKS SEEN DOWN, BEEF STOCKS UP FROM YEAR-AGO... Traders are expecting USDA's Cold Storage Report to show end-of-October pork stocks totaled 565.1 million lbs., which would be down very modestly from the previous month but 6.3% lower than year-ago when there were record pork stocks in storage for the month. Beef stocks are guessed at 447.8 million lbs., which would be up 4.4% from year-ago.

CASH CATTLE TRADE STARTS AT $131... Cash cattle trade unexpectedly got underway at $131 in the Southern Plains Thursday. The feedlots that moved cattle yesterday must feel cash bids are going to drop even further as producers typically wait until late Friday to sell cattle on a report week.

PORK PRICES STABILIZE, MOVEMENT STAYS STRONG... After two days of heavy price pressure, the pork cutout value firmed 6 cents Thursday. More importantly, packers moved a strong 401.29 loads of product to continue the recent string of strong movement. Retailers are actively buying pork given its price advantage over beef.

OVERNIGHT DEMAND NEWS... Japan purchased 14,731 MT of milling wheat, 1,000 MT of malting barley and 458 MT of food-grade barley. Iraq extended the deadline on its tender to buy at least 50,000 MT of optional origin wheat from today until Monday.


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