CORN FIRMER, BEANS AND WHEAT WEAKER OVERNIGHT... As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are fractionally to 2 cents lower and wheat futures are fractionally to 4 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is sharply higher amid optimism a debt/budget deal may be closer.
SENATE LEADERS NEAR BUDGET, DEBT LIMIT HIKE ACCORD... The potential accord would fund the government through Jan. 15, extend the debt ceiling until Feb. 7, and have a Dec. 13 deadline for a longer omnibus spending bill before Jan. 15, when the next round of sequester cuts is scheduled to slice another $20 billion out of agency budget, primarily from the Pentagon. Key is whether the House will vote for any budget/debt package. Many House Republicans declined to comment until they saw the final Senate proposal. The reception from House Republicans at their conference today will be key, as it will indicate whether they believe the deal will include enough incentives for them to vote in favor.
BUDGET, DEBT UNCERTAINTY IMPACTING U.S. ECONOMY... According to a report by Macroeconomic Advisers, the two-week shutdown has reduced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by a quarter of a percentage point this quarter. Each additional week of the shutdown will cut another 0.1% from GDP. On Monday, the Dow opened 100 points lower on after the weekend’s negative reports out of Capitol Hill and then rebounded to close higher as upbeat comments came out of Washington. Bond markets were closed for the Columbus Day holiday yesterday.
CRUSH SLOWED BY TIGHT SUPPLIES... Traders are expecting NOPA members to report soybean crush totaled 106.4 million bu. in September, which would be down 3.7% from August and 11.1% lower than year-ago amid tight supplies. If realized, that would be the slowest September crush pace in nine years. Soyoil stocks are guessed at 1.473 billion pounds.
CHINA'S WINTER WHEAT AREAS SUFFERING FROM DROUGHT... Severe drought is affecting about half of Henan, China's top wheat production region that accounts for roughly one-quarter of the country's total wheat output, according to the ag ministry. State-run Xinhua news agency also reports dryness is an issue in Shangdong, China's second largest wheat production region. The dryness is causing winter wheat planting delays and spurring speculation China will continue to actively import wheat.
UKRAINE WINTER GRAIN SEEDING REMAINS SLOWED... Winter grain seeding continues to be slowed by excessive wetness in Ukraine. As of Oct. 14, the country's ag ministry says 73% of intended winter grains area has been planted, while wheat wheat is seeded on 76% of intended acres.
STRONG START FOR BOXED BEEF... Boxed beef prices were sharply higher Monday, with Choice cuts rising $1.39 and Select up $1.98, according to Urner Barry. The strong start for the boxed beef market combined with tighter showlist numbers gives traders hope cash cattle bids will build on last week's mostly $128 cash cattle prices in the Southern Plains.
CASH HOGS SEEN MIXED... Packer demand for cash hogs was varied Monday, leading to mixed cash hog bids across the Midwest. The mixed cash tone is expected to continue today. Given positive margins, packers have room to raise bids in areas where supplies are tighter but generally slaughter numbers are building seasonally.
OVERNIGHT DEMAND NEWS... Exporters reported no tenders or purchases.