First Thing Today (VIP) -- October 23, 2012

October 23, 2012 01:39 AM
 

GOOD MORNING!

PRICE PRESSURE OVERNIGHT... As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 4 to 6 cents lower, soybeans 9 to 12 cents lower, Chicago wheat 6 to 8 cents lower, Kansas City wheat 7 to 8 cents lower and Minneapolis wheat 3 to 5 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is firmer this morning.

USDA PLEDGES TO 'DO BETTER' ON DATA... USDA officials expressed their displeasure with the divergence between projections of U.S. corn carryover as of Sept.1 and the survey-based data via the Grain Stocks Report. At the annual data user's meeting, World Ag Outlook Board Chairman Gerry Bange said the difference between the figures was not acceptable and pledged his agency would do a better job of trying to estimate supplies. USDA officials also defended providing access of data to reporters within lock-up where the news services can compile stories but are unable to release data ahead of the official release time.

OBAMA TAKES THIRD DEBATE... Most observers are giving President Obama the "victory" in the third presidential debate held Monday evening on the topic of foreign policy. Many felt that GOP challenger Mitt Romney was taking more of a defensive stance and Obama was more aggressive. Now the focus shifts to the remaining two weeks before the Nov. 6 election, with a handful of states holding the key to who will win the White House. Romney's performance in the first debate is a factor which many say has tightened the presidential race considerably to where it is now rated a toss-up.

UKRAINE GRAIN EXPORTS REMAIN ACTIVE... Ukraine has exported 7.65 MMT of grain from July 1 through Oct. 22, up 73% from year-ago, according to the ag ministry. Of that total, wheat accounts for 3.82 MMT. To date, exporters have contracted to ship 11.59 MMT of grain for 2012-13.

BOXED BEEF CHARGES HIGHER... Boxed beef prices were $1.08 (Select) to $1.67 (Choice) higher Monday and packers moved a solid 160 loads of product, especially given current price levels. With Choice boxes nearing the $200 mark, traders are expecting a short-term top in the product market soon despite no signs of that to this point. Expectations the boxed beef market will top soon are reflected in the fact nearby live cattle futures are trading at a discount to last week's cash trade.

PORK STOCKS BEARISH FOR HOG FUTURES... Monday afternoon's Cold Storage Report showed pork stocks at the end of September of 630.657 million pounds. Not only was that a record for the month, but also above the average pre-report trade guess. As a result, lean hog futures are expected to face price pressure this morning. But given the discount nearby futures hold to the cash market, selling interest should be relatively limited.

OVERNIGHT DEMAND NEWS... Taiwan purchased 104,000 MT of U.S. wheat. South Korea tendered for 50,000 MT of non-GMO soybeans.

 

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