First Thing Today (VIP) -- October 3, 2012

06:23AM Oct 03, 2012
( )


GRAINS LOWER OVERNIGHT, BUT PRESSURE EASING THIS MORNING... Grain and soy futures have worked well off their overnight lows, but remain lower this morning. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 4 to 7 cents lower, soybeans mostly 8 to 12 cents lower, Chicago wheat 4 to 14 cents lower, Kansas City wheat 6 to 10 cents lower and Minneapolis wheat 4 to 11 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is firmer.

FC STONE RAISES CORN, BEAN CROP ESTIMATES... Brokerage firm FC Stone raised its corn crop estimate to 10.824 billion bu. on a national average yield of 123.9 bu. per acre and increased its soybean crop estimate to 2.849 billion bu. on a national average yield forecast of 38.2 bu. per acre. In September, the firm estimated the corn crop at 10.607 billion bu. (121.4 bu. per acre yield) and the soybean crop at 2.739 billion bu. (36.7 bu. yield).

ETHANOL, ENERGY INTERESTS WILL WATCH PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE CLOSELY... The two presidential candidates square off in their first debate tonight in Denver. Energy policy questions could surface during the debate because the candidates have been noting their differences over energy policy. Topics addressed tonight could include the candidates' positions on ethanol, coal, natural gas, oil drilling and perhaps even climate change.

FORD, GM CLEAR E15 FOR NEWER VEHICLES... GM is now indicating that it has cleared E15 for use in 2012 and 2013 model-year vehicles and light trucks while Ford has taken a similar step for its 2013 models, according to the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS). The report also noted that the two automakers have concerns about using E15 in older vehicles, with Ford indicating it was safe for vehicles as old as the 2010 model year while GM signaled it recommends blends of no more than E10 in vehicles from 2001 to 2011 model years. EPA has approved E15 for use in 2001 and newer model year cars and light trucks.

Choice boxed beef prices followed up Monday's modest 21-cent gain with a $1.30 advance yesterday and this time Select values were also higher and movement improved to 211 total loads. With packers establishing initial cash bids very early in the week and the boxed beef market hinting that it may have found "value," some traders are hopeful of steady to firmer cash cattle prices compared with last week's $122 to $123 trade in the Plains.

PORK CUTOUT SURGES... The pork cutout value surged $3.00 Tuesday on sharp gains in all but picnics, which were "only" 34 cents higher, and packers moved a strong 137 loads of product amid the sharply higher prices. Strength in the pork product market will be enough to keep cash hog bids mostly steady with isolated instances of firmer bids.

OVERNIGHT DEMAND NEWS... Egypt tendered for optional origin wheat. Japan purchased 3,530 MT of feed wheat and 19,400 MT of feed barley, and tendered for another 120,000 MT of feed wheat and 200,000 MT of feed barley.