First Thing Today (VIP) -- September 12, 2013

September 12, 2013 01:07 AM


WEAKER TONE OVERNIGHT... As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 5 to 10 cents lower, SRW wheat futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents lower, HRW wheat futures are steady to 1 cent lower and HRS wheat futures are narrowly mixed. The U.S. dollar index is anchored near unchanged this morning.

SEPTEMBER CROP REPORTS OUT THIS MORNING... Traders are expecting USDA to lower its crop estimates and its 2013-14 carryover projections for corn and soybeans. In the Crop Production Report, the average trade guess puts the corn crop at 13.646 billion bu. on a national average yield of 153.9 bu. per acre and the soybean crop at 3.149 billion bu. on a yield of 41.3 bu. per acre. In the Supply & Demand Report, traders expect corn carryover to drop to 1.697 billion bu., soybean carryover to decline to 161 million bu. and wheat carryover to inch up to 556 million bushels.

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES ALSO OUT THIS MORNING... For the week ended Sept. 5, traders expect: corn sales between 400,000 and 500,000 MT; wheat sales between 450,000 and 650,000 MT; soybean sales between 650,000 and 800,000 MT; soymeal sales between 70,000 and 230,000 MT; and soyoil sales between 10,000 and 20,000 MT.

BOEHNER TELLS VISITING GROUP 'THERE WILL BE A NEW FARM BILL BY THE END OF THIS SEPTEMBER'... House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) told a group of visitors this week when asked about the timeline for a new farm bill that the measure would be completed "by the end of this September." Meanwhile, Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), ranking member of the House Ag Committee, said he called USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack this week suggesting that the agency begin the process of implementing the 1949-era dairy policies that would take effect if Congress fails to act on a farm bill. "Clearly this is not going to get done by the 1st of October, so my suggestion to the secretary is that they should start now putting the framework together to implement the permanent law on dairy Jan. 1," Peterson said. "And it sounds to me like they're going to take a very serious look at that." The 1949 law requires USDA to support the dairy market in such a way that milk is priced at a floor of roughly $39 per 100 pounds -- a figure that would lead milk prices to roughly double at today's rates.

COOL RULE OPPONENTS APPEAL COURT RULING ON PRELIMINARY INJUNCTION... Groups who lost a court decision for a preliminary injunction to prevent USDA from implementing its rule finalized in May on Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) say they will appeal the decision. "We disagree strongly with the court's decision and believe that several aspects of the ruling are susceptible to challenge," says Pat Boyle, CEO of the American Meat Institute."We intend to pursue them on appeal." The Canadian Pork Council (CPC) also backed the appeal, saying they will also continue to work at the WTO level with the Canadian government to get a compliance panel established to determine whether the new USDA rule brings the U.S. in line with its WTO commitments. And, CPC said they would also keep working with the U.S. Congress to address the issue in a new farm bill.

CHINESE SOYBEAN SALES SLOW... China sold 346,760 MT of state-owned soybeans out of 501,098 MT put up for auction this week at an average price of 4,082 yuan ($670) per ton. Once again, interior soy processors and food companies purchased all of the soybeans.

WASHINGTON STATE TESTING ALFALFA FOR GMO PRESENCE... Washington state agriculture officials are testing samples of alfalfa after a producer reported his hay was rejected for export because it tested positive for a GMO trait that was not supposed to be in his crop, according to a Reuters report. While GMO alfalfa is approved for commercial production in the U.S., many foreign buyers (and some domestic buyers) won't accept genetically altered hay.

CASH CATTLE UNCERTAINTY... Cash cattle negotiations have been slow to progress in the Plains again this week as feedlots are seeking higher prices, while packers have thus far shown little interest in buying cattle. With showlist numbers up from week-ago, most traders are anticipating steady to weaker cash prices compared with last week's $123 trade in the Plains.

PORK PRODUCT MARKET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... The pork cutout value gained another $1.30 Wednesday and movement improved to 446.3 loads, signaling the product market is not only strong but it's continuing to strengthen. The strengthening product market will continue to support cash hog bids and lean hog futures.

OVERNIGHT DEMAND NEWS... Japan purchased 113,572 MT of wheat in its weekly tender, including 40,819 MT of U.S. supplies. Japan received no bids in a tender to buy 120,000 MT of feed wheat and 200,000 MT of feed barley that closed on Wednesday, but issued a similar tender that closes on Sept. 18.


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