First Thing Today (VIP) -- September 6, 2013

September 6, 2013 01:09 AM


MILDLY FIRMER OVERNIGHT... As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are mostly 3 to 5 cents higher and wheat futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is weaker this morning.

INFORMA TO ISSUE SEPTEMBER CROP REPORT THIS MORNING... Informa Economics will release its September crop report at 10:30 a.m. CT, which will contain production forecasts for corn, soybeans and cotton. For corn and beans, Informa will release two production forecasts -- the September estimate and the most likely final estimate.

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES REPORT OUT THIS MORNING... For the week ended Aug. 29, traders expect: corn sales between 350,000 and 675,000 MT; wheat sales between 450,000 and 600,000 MT; soybean sales between 500,000 and 925,000 MT; soymeal sales between 100,000 and 250,000 MT; and soyoil sales between 0 and 25,000 MT.

BETTER JOBS NUMBERS EXPECTED... After lower-than-expected jobs growth in July, a better non-farm payrolls number is expected in this morning's report. Economists polled by Reuters expect the Labor Department to show non-farm payrolls increased by 180,000 in August. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 7.4%.

STATS CAN TO UPDATE CANADIAN GRAIN STOCKS... Statistics Canada is expected to report the smallest Canadian wheat stocks as of July 31 in five years and the second smallest canola stockpiles in nine years. The average pre-report guess puts all wheat stocks at 5.13 MMT, canola stocks at 730,000 MT and barley stocks at 970,000 MT.

CRS REPORT: EXPIRING PROGRAMS TO COST MORE WITHOUT NEW FARM BILL... The 37 agricultural programs that did not have funding in Fiscal Year 2012 would pose an additional cost of 3% of the $484 billion five-year Congressional Budget Office (CBO) baseline available for the next farm bill or 14% of the $100 billion baseline, which excludes nutritional programs, a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report said. According to the report, offsets of between $9 billion to $14 billion are needed to reauthorize the expiring programs for agricultural disaster assistance, conservation, specialty crop research, organic research and certification, beginning and socially disadvantaged farmers, rural development, bioenergy and farmers market promotion. These programs have not had budgets beyond FY 2012. The Senate's new farm bill, approved June 10, would provide more than $4.5 billion of mandatory funding over five years for 25 programs that do not have a baseline. The House farm bill, passed July 11, would provide more than $4.8 billion of mandatory funding for 13 of the programs, the report said. To continue the programs in the next farm bill, lawmakers will need to pay for the programs with offsets, the report said. The American Farmer Bureau Federation does not support extending the programs because of the reduction in the farm bill budget and uncertainty as to what to cut to pay for the extensions.

EPA, ENERGY DEPT. LEADERS TO TESTIFY AT HOUSE HEARING ON OBAMA CLIMATE PLAN... Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Gina McCarthy and Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz will testify Sept. 18 at a House hearing on President Obama's climate change plan. The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Power awaits responses from 11 other agencies, including USDA, on whether they will provide witnesses for the hearing. President Obama announced a national plan June 25 for addressing climate change and called for EPA to promulgate carbon dioxide emission limits for new and existing power plants.

STILL WAITING ON CASH CATTLE TRADE... Cash cattle negotiations remain at a standstill with bids and asking prices still far apart in the Plains. While cattle traders are still hopeful of steady to firmer prices compared with last week's mostly $123 trade, pressure on futures Thursday signals there's some uncertainty. Active cash trade in the Plains is not expected until late today.

PORK MOVEMENT STAYS STRONG... Packers moved another 479.6 loads of pork Thursday, continuing the string of strong post-holiday retailer buying. With packers able to actively move pork, the cash hog market has been supported this week. Cash hog bids are expected to remain steady to firmer to close out the week as packers are working with strong margins while unseasonably hot temps are trimming hog weights and slowing marketings.

OVERNIGHT DEMAND NEWS... South Korea purchased 60,000 MT of optional origin corn but passed on a tender to buy 60,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat. Pakistan purchased 25,000 MT of Ukrainian wheat. Egypt tendered for optional origin wheat with results expected later this morning.


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