Forecasters Against Spring Barrier to Predict El Nino, La Nina

January 31, 2017 01:49 PM
 
 

Some farmers are getting machinery ready and ordering seed after recovering from fall harvest. In typical farmer fashion, they’re concerned about the weather conditions that will either help or hinder their planting progress in the spring.

According to Joe D’Aleo, chef forecaster with WeatherBELL, it’s hard to tell what the spring will look like, but forecasters are keeping a watchful eye to see if El Nino will make a return.

“We’re up against what we call the ‘spring barrier’ as we predict La Nina or El Nino,” said D’Aleo. The models struggle at this time of year as to what will happen in this transition season. If we go to El Nino, it’ll mean plenty of rain and moderate temperatures in the Corn Belt.”

However, he warns if we don’t trend toward El Nino and rains pull back in the southern plans and southeast through the spring, it could bring back drought and heat in mid-2017.

“If you have dry areas, drought begets drought,” said D’Aleo. “Those areas can be the center of heat that can grow with time. Especially if the eastern Pacific turns cold. If it’s dry [in the central part of the U.S.] and you build a ridge over it like in 2012, then you got a drought, a heat wave and a hot summer.”

Watch U.S. Farm Report and AgDay meteorologist Mike Hoffman give his 90 day outlook on U.S. Farm Report below.

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