Get the Facts on 2015 from CattleFax

 
Get the Facts on 2015 from CattleFax

Each year CattleFax shares outlooks for what could come in the near and even distant future during the Cattle Industry Convention. For 2015, it looks like beef producers will see a slight drop off in the market, but profitability should remain high thanks to increasing global demand and lower input costs.

Here are some of the facts shared by CattleFax:

  • Fed cattle prices increased $28/cwt in 2014 compared to 2013 
  • Cow-calf producers are seeing pretty good profits, but it looks to be more seasonal in 2015
  • All of the protein markets had an incredible run in 2014, but think about where milk prices are at now
  • Fed cattle markets move 20-22% each year from high to low 
  • The fed cattle basis in Kansas average $2.67/cwt last year 
  • The range for fed cattle is from $140 to $175/cwt 
  • The U.S. and Brazil contribute 50% of meat protein to the global markets
  • Exports have increased $13 billion in five years and now are at $26 billion
  • Beef export accounts for $352/head value. In 2020 it could be $500/head

For 2015 cattle prices are projected to average:

  • Fed $157/cwt
  • Feeders $220/cwt
  • Calves $260/cwt

Closing thoughts from CattleFax CEO Randy Blach:

  • "We have to manage risks. And managing risks is different than trading."
  • "Historically cattle feeding tends to be a break-even business." 
  • "Margin operators (cattle feeders and stockers) will need to refocus on managing risk."
  •  "Grain prices will average near breakeven for producers the next few years."
  • "Global buying power increasing. As incomes rise, so does the demand for meat."
  • "Cow-calf producers will remain solidly profitable for the next several years."
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