The European Union was the low-priced wheat seller this week, at $5.41/bu., while Argentina had the cheapest offerings of corn ($4.13) and soybeans ($10.19), reports Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource.
Planting progress has been rapid in the United States, with corn 50% complete likely to be reported as of Sunday. “Old-crop selling is likely to increase once this crop is in the ground,” he says. That spells weaker basis and lower prices …
Turning to the global scene, the big news is Russia’s confirmation it will reduce or eliminate its wheat export taxes on prospects of an excellent crop thanks to recent rains. “A decision is expected in mid-May regarding whether the tax will be decreased sooner than the original deadline of June 30,” says Noel Fryer, European analyst.
He reports recent Black Sea prices at $190/ton FOB, about $10 less than U.S. Gulf soft red winter offerings. Feed wheat is offered to Asia at $175/ton FOB and corn, 50 cents below U.S. offerings. “Even at those prices there are no bids as world buyers await further price declines,” Fryer says, citing both the Russian tax decision and high levels of Black Sea stocks.
It is little wonder USDA reported net export sales in the week need April 23 were a minus of more than 449,000 metric tons and a marketing year low. A significant amount was switched to 2015/16, however.
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