Global Wheat Supply Projections Lowered 30 Million Bu.

August 11, 2011 02:42 AM

U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered 30 million bushels this month as higher forecast winter wheat production is more than offset by lower area and production for durum and other spring wheat.  Total use for 2011/12 is lowered 30 million bushels with a reduced outlook for exports more than offsetting an increase in expected feed and residual use.  Exports are projected down 50 million bushels with increased competition, particularly from FSU-12 countries, where production prospects are raised.  

Projected feed and residual use is raised 20 million bushels, reflecting a continuation of competitive prices for feed-quality wheat and lower projected corn supplies.  Ending stocks are nearly unchanged.  
The 2011/12 season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $7.00 to $8.20 per bushel, up from last month’s range of $6.60 to $8.00 per bushel supported by higher projected prices for corn. 
Small changes are made to 2009/10 and 2010/11 supplies and usage reflecting the latest revisions to trade estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Census.  These revisions result in adjustments to feed and residual use in both years. 
Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 11.4 million tons higher with higher beginning stocks and a sharp increase in production.  World wheat production for 2011/12 is raised 9.7 million tons with increases in FSU-12, India, China, and EU-27 more than offsetting a reduction for Argentina.  Russia production for 2011/12 is raised 3.0 million tons on harvest reports for winter wheat and continued favorable weather in most of the country’s spring wheat areas.  Ukraine production is increased 3.0 million tons on higher-than-expected yields; however, heavy rains during harvest have reduced this year’s crop quality.  Kazakhstan production is increased 1.0 million tons on abundant spring and early summer rainfall.  India wheat production is up 1.9 million tons based on the latest official government estimates. China production is raised 1.5 million tons based on the latest official government indications. Production is increased 1.4 million tons for EU-27 with increases for France, Romania, and Bulgaria.  
Harvest results from France indicate yields were hurt less by prolonged spring dryness than early reports had suggested.  Partly offsetting is a 1.5-million-ton reduction in expected production for Argentina as the latest planting progress reports suggest less acreage increase this year. 
The 2011/12 outlook for world wheat trade and consumption this month is shaped by growing supplies of wheat, especially in FSU-12 and EU-27, and tighter supplies of corn in the United States.  Imports are raised 3.0 million tons with increases for South Korea, Algeria, Indonesia, Syria, and Kenya. World wheat feeding is increased 4.9 million tons with higher expected feeding in EU-27, China, Canada, South Korea, and the United States.  Exports are raised 4.0 million tons for Russia and 1.5 million tons for Ukraine, more than offsetting reductions of 1.5 million tons for Argentina, 1.4 million tons for the United States, and 1.0 million tons for Canada.  World wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 6.7 million tons higher at 188.9 million tons.  Stocks are expected to decline slightly from 2010/11 with higher usage, but remain 62.9 million tons above their recent low in 2007/08.
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