Grain and Oilseed Markets Quiet Ahead of the Fed Rate Decision

December 15, 2015 11:40 AM

By Doane Advisory Services

The grain and oilseed markets were quiet ahead of the Fed rate decision that begins today and ends Wednesday with the decision announcement at 1:00 p.m. CST. Other policy decisions, like the blender’s credit bill, will likely be finalized Friday afternoon before Congress breaks for the holiday. Monday, Argentina eliminated the corn/wheat export tax, however, changes to their currency structure have yet to be announced. The Chinese yuan devalued further Tuesday and the dollar was lower as currencies remain volatile ahead of the FOMC meeting. Support for the march contract can be found at 3.7325 and resistance at 3.81. Crude oil was higher and Dow futures point to a higher open. March corn futures moved 0.75 cents lower to $3.7825 Tuesday morning, while May lost 0.75 cent to $3.835.

Soybean futures were neutral-weaker early Tuesday after the complex firmed Monday on technical buying and the lower dollar. The trade is weighing the blender’s tax credit decision, lower Argentine export taxes, and weather-induced lower Brazilian soybean production against the backdrop of currency volatility ahead of the expected Fed rate hike. Despite weekly export soybean inspections missing expectations Monday, analysts believe the November NOPA crush report will set a record for the month at an average estimate of 161.7 million bushels. January soybeans were 1 cent lower to $8.7325 early Tuesday, while Jan soyoil lost 27 points to 30.85 cents per pound and January meal climbed $0.20 to $275.70.              

Wheat futures were lower Tuesday morning after rising Monday on technical buying. Weekly wheat export inspections beat the estimates at 434,767 tonnes, though the export pace for wheat remains at its slowest since 1972. Russia ag ministry sees their 2016 crop at 104 million tonnes, 4 million higher than the estimate of SovEcon and above their 2015 harvest of 103 million tonnes. El-Nino has caused the downgrade of Australian winter wheat to 23.3 mmt this year from 23.7 harvested in 2014 as farmers contended with an usually dry spring in additional to heavy rains and winds in November. March CBOT wheat futures lost 2.75 cents to $4.9075 per bushel early Tuesday, while Mar KC wheat fell 1.5 cents to $4.865, and March MWE slid 0.5 cents to $5.10.             


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