Grain Markets Surge on Weather Concerns

July 30, 2012 01:35 AM

Great week at the fair. Despite a couple of 100-plus-degree days, we had a great time at the county fair. My oldest daughter has a poster going to the state fair and my youngest daughter's working exhibit is going to the state fair. But the picture below tells a thousand words... Addie was all smiles when her heifer was selected "Supreme Champion Beef Breeding." It took a lot of work to get to this moment... but hard work pays off.


Follow me on twitter @julijohnston

Overnight highlights. Following are highlights of overnight trade (as of 6:30 a.m. CT) and opening livestock calls:

Corn: 9 to 22 cents higher. Nearby futures are 20-plus cents higher, with September pivoting around $8.20 on concerns about this week's warmer and drier forecast. Meanwhile, December corn posted a fresh contract high of $8.17 1/4 overnight and is currently trading near the session highs. Bulls' next upside objective is $8.25, followed by $8.50.

Soybeans: 30 to 43 cents higher. Futures are higher this morning in anticipating of hot and dry weather this week and expectations this afternoon's crop progress report will show further deterioration in the crop. August soybeans gapped higher on the open and have moved back above $17.20 and November beans are pivoting around $16.45 this morning.

Wheat: 14 to 20 cents higher. Futures are enjoying spillover from neighboring pits this morning, as well as concerns about the global crop. There is heightened talk Russia's government could sell some stocks from its intervention fund to stabilize domestic prices in regions that are most affected by drought. September Chicago wheat has come within a 1/4-cent of $9.20 this morning.

Live cattle: Mixed. Futures are called to open mixed following Friday's sharp gains, as the front-month contract is trading at around a $5 premium to last week's $114 cash cattle trade. Feedlots didn't clear out showlists last week and Choice beef prices were $1.31 lower to end the week. Unless the beef market improves this week, there is fresh near-term downside risk for futures.

Lean Hogs: Mixed. Futures are expected to be mixed this morning as traders keep a close eye on outside markets and the grain markets. Surging grain prices are supportive for deferred futures, as traders are scaling back farrowing intention expectations. The cash hog market is expected to be mostly steady as supplies have tightened. Packers saw profit margins improve last week, but still remain in the red.


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