Jerry Gulke found himself with mixed feelings on the second Friday in July, after the markets closed.
“Corn did make new high closes again,” the Gulke Group president told Farm Journal Radio. “There were plenty of excuses for corn to pull lower today—profit taking and all that. But it did not. It closed at new high closes (at) the highest it’s been since July 1 of last year. That’s pretty good.”
He wasn’t so happy about soybeans. “It was a disappointing week for the beans,” Gulke said. “I’m a little concerned about the soybeans. There’s something fishy there. You would have thought they would have been stronger today.”
Why didn’t soybean prices stay strong today, given news of lower carryouts and ongoing demand? Gulke suggested there might just be too much uncertainty right now in the commodity markets and beyond.
“I think this is evolving into a ‘realizing’ economy, where it takes time to realize what the fundamentals are, and I think that the government today shied away from doing anything heretical. They could have lowered corn yield a bushel and beans a half-bushel and give us a token bone to chew on, but they didn’t do that…” he said. “I think they’re so concerned about speculating on the outcome (that) … they like to see the statistics, count the kernels, count the pods, and see the dead plant to make sure it did die.”
Listen to Jerry Gulke’s full comments:
While the USDA might be staying excessively conservative, Gulke also warned farmers about getting too aggressive in their planting decisions as they see soybean supplies tighten.
“You can just feel the emotion. The people who were so bearish are now turning bullish,” Gulke said. “A farmer listens to this and says, ‘Whatever the price is now, it’s probably going to be higher.’ … I still think there’s going to be more beans out there than we think.”
Are you feeling bullish or bearish on corn and soybean prices these days? Let us know in the comments.