Gulke: Could Bumper Harvest Reap $2 Corn?

August 27, 2016 12:28 PM
Dickinson County, Iowa

Could a bumper harvest yield $2 corn with no disaster on the horizon to offset a record supply of grain?

Already, this is not strictly a "what-if" scenario. Corn is actually selling for $2 a bushel in places like northern Kansas, according to Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group in Chicago.

“I do not like what I hear from some people in the business that it takes a $2 corn. I hardly believe that, but it’s altogether possible if our crop is anywhere close to what USDA thinks,” cautioned Gulke, speaking to Pam Fretwell on Farm Journal Radio.

On Aug. 26, Pro Farmer Crop Tour released a corn yield estimate of 170.2 bushels per acre, below USDA ‘s earlier estimate of 175.1 bushels per acre, and a soybean yield estimate of 49.3 bushels per acre, more than  USDA’s estimate of  48.9 bushels per acre.

But by either estimate, “we’ve got  too much of everything,” Gulke says.  “Now, they’ve got piles of wheat and piles of corn, so it’s like we’re chasing each other downwards to see what the lowest prices we can achieve to where we can get rid of the stuff."

The market could slide downward without a wholesale disaster to bring yields down below 168 to 166 bu. per acre in corn and around 46 bu. per acre in beans, he notes.

“Markets will seek a level that says, ‘How do I get rid of 2 billion bushels of corn and 300 million or 400 million bushels of beans or at least half of that to get to equilibrium again,'” Gulke says.

Listen to Gulke’s full analysis here:

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Spell Check

plains, ND
8/29/2016 06:54 PM

  1. Who runs the USDA - president - cheap food is a must to push the democrat socialist agenda 2. Big corporate grain/chem/fert companies dominate the lobbying & run the government and ag news... 3. The only time there are high grain markets is when the speculators in wall street come in and run it up - that's a fact - yet dumb farmers don't like that market manipulation..... 4. Farmers are own worst enemy. I have watched over the last 6-7 "good" years guys steal the neighbors rented land - pay double what the land is worth - running many near million dollar rigs just to put crop in much less the combines. NOW I have to listen to these same "big shots" whine the minute there is trouble. I hope nobody bales them out - the hogs asked for it. ** You older guys say "Young" farmers" - I am one - the baby boomers have hogged all the land up in upper Midwest the last 6-7 years - how could there be any young farmers!!?? $12000 land in Iowa - no young farmer can compete.... $3000 land in ND?? where average crops of wheat are 35 bushels!!?? The baby boomers have run many young farmers out of business........ yet they dare preach we need young farmers..... Now I get to watch some silver spoon moron run his drones by my farm.... and he's 60 years old!! Farmers --- wake up --- I thought we were the salt of the earth .... now I just see the same worldly Godless people that I can see in any major city.... trying to get whatever they can consume. How far the farmer has fallen since my grandfather's time..... Now they have 5-6 immigrant workers to farm what I farmed by myself!!? I feel for you real farmers out there - the commercial money hungry silver spoon farmers are destroying our heritage and legacy......

Austin, TX
8/27/2016 11:52 AM

  This is 180 degrees from the article posted on Aug 19th??

Charles Darty
Milan, TN
8/27/2016 08:03 AM

  Mr. Gulke, I have to agree with Mr. Schsefer, i am 68yrs. old started farming on my own in 1970 have see all the things and lived through all the hard times he is talking about. These young farmers are going to have to wake up and wake up really fast because we are headed for a big disaster. I still farm but i work a lot less acres than i have in the past. Respectfully, Charles Darty


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