Gulke: Markets ‘Are Just Shaking Loose Leaves Off the Tree’

July 25, 2015 05:00 AM
 
Gulke: Markets ‘Are Just Shaking Loose Leaves Off the Tree’

Corn and soybean futures took a tumble at week’s end, falling 11 cents for December corn and 19 cents for September soybeans, but Jerry Gulke doesn’t sound terribly worried.

“An old trader just told me, ‘All this is just shaking the loose leaves off the tree,’” says Gulke, president of the Gulke Group in Chicago and a farmer in Illinois. “In other words, the guys who are playing the games don’t have the money. They’re just testing the market, and you blow them out on the up and you blow them out on the downside.”

The true price, of course, ends up somewhere in the middle, as the recent market trends show. “We got too cheap in June. And then we rallied up and all we heard about every day was rain,” Gulke says. … We probably went too far because of the hype.”

Sometimes it's farmers who get caught, sometimes it's money managers.

“It’s the psychology of the marketplace it does that to you. You get really bearish at the bottom and you get bullish at the top,” Gulke says. “In my heart, I don’t think this is the top of the market, but I’m not going to risk my farm on it.”

Listen to Jerry Gulke’s full comments:

 

Where will prices settle? It’s too soon to tell, given the time remaining until harvest and the wide spectrum of crop conditions right now, but Gulke sounds optimistic.

“I don’t think we’re going to see new lows again. I think we’ve dodged a bullet in agriculture. Had we had a huge crop and not this drowning out and the prevent plant that we think is coming yet, we probably would have gone down to $3 for the futures,” he says. “I don’t think you’re going to see $3 cash again.”

Are you feeling bullish or bearish on corn and soybean prices these days? Let us know in the comments. 

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Comments

 
Spell Check

Moose
Auburn, IL
7/25/2015 10:01 AM
 

  Wow, killing the messenger isn't gonna market your grain! We live in a GLOBAL marketplace boys, take the time to understand it and profit. Get ur heads out of ur narrow view kiesters!

 
 
Missourifarmer
FAYETTE, MO
7/25/2015 11:57 AM
 

  Things are difficult now, but remember what Boyd Crowder say's on the show justified-"ABC". Always be cool.

 
 
TraderTarik
New York, NY
7/26/2015 08:18 PM
 

  By the way, I do not think so just speculators shaking tree sometimes hedgers do that too. Last bottom speculator position was fall in a trap badly. They start to get shorts around 3,67 and market found its bottom 3,48. When we reached 3,85 money managers was still in short and their panic makes price higher and higher because to close their shorts they have to take long. Meanwhile hedgers (include farmers) have minimum short net for a long time so they catch the bottom and last two week we can say that market (price) driving by hedgers because they are entering heavily short. I think USDA reports changing mood and whether concern make them surprised and now it is the time to be panic for hedgers. Just last two days friday and tonight sharp movement in night it is not normal behavior of corn market.

 
 

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