With markets rebounding, a bumper harvest approaching, and China's ever-growing soybean demand, the market has continued to shrug off bearish USDA yield estimates, observed Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group in Chicago
“The market is paying more for corn now then before they knew they had 175 (bushels per acre) yield,” said Gulke, speaking with Pam Fretwell on Farm Journal Radio. With the market paying 11 cents more for corn, soybeans also rallied “up to $10.17 and then today they managed to close above resistance at $10.02,” Gulke observed.
However, Gulke said he would like to see prices rise to hold bearish speculators in check. If soybeans could rise 30 cents to 40 cents, and corn going up 15 cents to 20 cents, (well off the lows), it might scare more of the shorts out of the market.
Both farmers and the market seem to be anticipating a good harvest, according to Gulke.
“I would say what probably everybody agrees with, including the government and the market … is that this is a good crop but I’m not so sure that it is a record crop, so we’ll see,” Gulke said.
China’s strong appetite for U.S. ag exports seems to support the market’s reaction. “We’re looking at China growth of not five percent compounded any more but probably about 3 .50 percent,” Gulke noted.