Gulke: Negative Export Numbers Aren't What They Seem

January 7, 2017 04:00 AM

Although the latest export figures from USDA paint a bleak picture, the data points aren’t necessarily what they seem, says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group.

“Export sales were terrible on the surface, but the devil’s in the details,” Gulke tells “Weekend Market Report” host Pam Fretwell. “Market psychology is what it is. It reacts to negative news, and the export sales number was certainly negative.”

Yet the reality is more nuanced, as Gulke explains in this week’s audio report. New sales looked weaker in part because more than 859,000 tons of sales switched from unknown locations to known countries. More than half went to China, and other big recipients of shipments included Indonesia and Vietnam.

Want more video news? Watch it on AgDay.

Producers should also keep an eye on South America. Gulke notes it wasn’t until April 2016 that the market had a good sense of the crops in Brazil and Argentina.  

This week, “we just took a little weather premium out of the soybean market,” Gulke says.

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