Gulke Sees ‘Decent’ News in February USDA Numbers

February 10, 2015 02:41 PM
Gulke Sees ‘Decent’ News in February USDA Numbers

While today’s USDA report was no blockbuster, market-moving release, Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group in Chicago, still found plenty of numbers to like.

The corn carryout dipped 50 million bushels to 1.827 billion bushels, thanks in part to a surprise jump in ethanol usage. “We’re supposed to be talking about ethanol not making any money,” said Gulke.

He also noted how the continuing monthly reduction in ending stocks resembled a similar pattern last year, which suggests that farmers may be addressing the much-discussed acreage issue by planting fewer corn acres after all. "It's a minor deal, but the trend is there," he said.

The carryout dropped in soybeans as well, falling to 385 million bushels on the strength of increased exports. With a bumper crop expected soon from South America, that reduction is relatively good news for farmers worried about plunging bean prices. “It didn’t get any worse,” Gulke said.

Listen to Gulke’s full analysis here:



Will that export pace continue, given how the dollar’s strength is making American grain more costly? It’s hard to say.  “So far, the government has not showed that exports per se have been affected much by the currency, so it may be a lagging situation,” Gulke said.

Overall, though, the veteran market watcher sounded satisfied with the day’s report. “All in all, it was a decent report,” Gulke said. “It could have been worse.”



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Spell Check

Chappell, NE
2/10/2015 06:43 PM

  Another USDA crock report - another double digit loss for wheat. What a surprise. But keep sending me those surveys, I'm short on tp.

Tulare , CA
2/12/2015 10:00 AM

  Overproducing of anything years in a row is bad news. Trust me I'm a California dairyman. Overproduction of milk and price correction sent over 500 of us out of business. My advice sell everything if your CPA thinks you can walk away with something after taxes. Its not worth the stress sometimes

t montgomery
opelika, AL
2/10/2015 08:15 PM

  People can get angry but the report is what we have to live with for another month. We need to realize that there is nothing in shortage and we (world farmers) have the ability to over produce everything and with ongoing research it only brings on more production.. When I see producers voluntarily reduce acres then price has a chance . What happened in the 1930's they tried to plant themselves out of a hole !


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