Gulke Shares His 'WASDE Watch List'

January 12, 2017 03:44 PM
USDA Grain Unloader

No fireworks were seen in the reports USDA released today. Jerry Gulke discusses the highlights and what farmers can expect to see moving forward.

USDA released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), quarterly Grain Stocks and Annual Crop Production reports on Jan. 12.

“It was a pretty good report day,” says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group. “It doesn’t help us a lot or doesn’t mean $4 corn any time soon. But, it could have been a lot worse.”

Corn for grain production is estimated at 15.1 billion bushels, down 1% from the November forecast but up 11% from the 2015 estimate. The average national corn yield was lowered by 0.7 bushel from the November forecast.

Gulke says feed usage for corn was lowered, but usage for corn for ethanol was increased.

“In the end, because the production was lower, the carryout was lowered down to 2.355 billion bushels,” he says. “That’s still plenty. We need carryover of about 1.6 billion bushels to get things concerning. So you still have about 600 million bushels more than you had last year going into the crop we’re going to plant come this spring.”

USDA projects the season-average corn price for farmers to be $3.10 to $3.70 this year.

“That’s pretty wide,” Gulke says of the price forecast. "A lot of it still depends on South America and that’s where we’ll be looking."

For soybeans, production in 2016 totaled a record 4.31 billion bushels, down 1% from the November forecast but up 10% from 2015. Soybeans stored in all positions on Dec. 1, 2016 totaled 2.90 billion bushels, up 7% from Dec. 1, 2015. 

Here are some more summary findings from today's reports:

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