What Traders are Talking About:
* Happy Thanksgiving. Thin holiday trade is expected today as many traders will head out early for an extended holiday break even though grain and livestock markets will observe normal trading hours today. All markets and government offices are closed Thursday for Thanksgiving. Grain and livestock markets will trade abbreviated hours Friday, Nov. 23. (9:30 a.m. CT to noon CT for grain futures at the Chicago Board of Trade and Kansas City Board of Trade, 9:30 a.m. CT to 12:15 p.m. CT for wheat futures at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange. Livestock markets are open from 9:05 a.m. CT to 12:15 p.m. CT.)
The long and short of it: Take a moment to think about all the things you are thankful for as you celebrate Thanksgiving with family and friends tomorrow. While markets are open Friday, I will not have an updated column. Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving.
* Russia raises grain export ceiling. Russian 2012-13 grain exports could reach 15.5 MMT, according to Deputy Ag Minister Ilya Shestakov, who says 11 MMT of grain have already been exported. That would leave Russia with tight grain stocks of 6 MMT to start the 2013-14 marketing year. Previously, the Russian ag ministry was forecasting 2012-13 grain exports at 10 MMT to 14 MMT. Shestakov also indicated the government plans to restart active grain sales from intervention stocks in February. Meanwhile, the head of the Russian Grain Union says Russia will export 9.5 MMT to 10 MMT of wheat in 2012-13.
The long and short of it: Grain exports from the Black Sea region are proving to be a moving target. But it still appears very likely grain (primarily wheat) exports from the region will be severely reduced the second half of 2012-13.
* No deal on emergency funding for Greece. European leaders failed to reach an agreement that would give Greece the next tranche of emergency funding the country needs to avoid defaulting on sovereign debt. But euro-zone finance ministers, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank will meet again next Monday and leaders from France and Germany have indicated a deal is close.
The long and short of it: With a deal apparently close, the "risk-off" attitude that developed overnight on the initial reports of a deal failing to be struck have eased.
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