Between the squeeze of falling commodity prices and flooded-out fields, some farmers are ready to start planning for 2016.
If you’re one of them (particularly if you live in Illinois, where 87 counties have been named disaster areas), the team at farmdoc daily has some numbers for you.
Gary Schnitkey, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois, has calculated the estimated crop year payments under ARC-CO (agricultural risk coverage—county level) for farmers in central Illinois for 2015 and 2016.
For 2015, Schnitkey forecasts that farmers will receive $78 per base acre for corn and $45 per base acre for soybeans under ARC- CO.
Growers should expect lower amounts for the 2016 crop.
“For corn, 2016 ARC-CO payments likely would average near $50 per base acre if the 2016 market year average price is near $3.65 per acre,” said Schnitkey, using McLean County, Ill., as a representative example. “For soybeans, ARC-CO payments near $25 per base acre seem realistic given an $8.15 (marketing year average) price.”
If prices are higher than $4 for corn and $10 for soybeans, payments are unlikely, according to Schnitkey.
Want to estimate the payments based on your own county? Click here to download a free (registration required) farmdoc daily spreadsheet tool, which covers all 50 states and key crops of barley, corn, soybeans, grain sorghum and wheat.