How Much Does El Nino Contribute to Climate Change?

January 18, 2017 12:38 PM
Global temperatures

The year 2014 was remarkable to climate scientists because it was the warmest year on record. That is, until 2015, which replaced it as the warmest year on record. That is, until 2016, when the record was broken once more.

“2016 is remarkably the third record year in a row in this series,” said NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies director Gavin Schmidt. “We don't expect record years every year, but the ongoing long-term warming trend is clear.”

Even though El Niño conditions in the picture for significant portions of 2015 and 2016, Schmidt says it only made minor contributions to overall global temperature changes. NASA attributes a 0.5 ˚C boost to El Niño in 2015 and a 0.12 ˚C boost in 2016 – just a fraction of the total temperature change.

“Effectively, the modern trend is providing 90% of the signal, and El Niño is contributing 10% of the signal. We’re only seeing these records because of greenhouse gases, not El Niño. We anticipate when we have an El Niño at the beginning of the year, we expect to have a slightly warmer-than-average year.”

And what – or who – is the cause of more greenhouse gases?

“Pretty much all of the long-term trend can be attributed to human activity,” Schmidt says.

Earth’s oceans have played an interesting role in climate change, absorbing around 90% of the heat caused by greenhouse gases, according to Deke Arndt, chief of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information’s monitoring branch.

“It’s something of a savings account,” he notes.

Arndt says that 2016 ended up 1.69 ˚F warmer than the 20th century average. No land areas were cooler than average for the year, and record-breaking warm temperatures happened in several areas, including far eastern Russia, Alaska, far western Canada, portions of the eastern U.S., much of Central America and northern South America and more. Every single U.S. state saw warmer-than-average temperatures in 2016.

By continent, North America saw its warmest year on record, with the second-warmest year on record for Africa and South America, and the third-warmest year on record for Europe and Asia.

For a complete look at the collaborative NOAA/NASA “Annual Global Analysis for 2016” summary report, visit

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Spell Check

Capron, IL
1/18/2017 08:52 PM

  97% of the worlds scientists say climate change is real and fossil fuels are the cause. Those are the facts. Even if you do not believe in science, the growth the US could see in the innovation moving our economy away from fossil fuels is huge.

Chicago, IL
1/20/2017 04:02 PM

  PLEASE. Read something besides the mainstream media. Just recently was shown scientifically that NOAA was fudging the data again. Oh, sorry, forgot. If it doesn't back up climate change believers, it couldn't have been scientific. Only their data is scientific. Anyone against them is a neanderthal incapable of science.

Caledonia, MN
1/18/2017 04:55 PM

  They said, southern MN., where i live, would have Kansas like summer tempatures, in the 100's, because of global warming, way back almost 20 years ago. We haven't had a extra warmer summer here for many years, mostly perfect. This summer if 2 days made 90 degrees, that was it. Global warming is a farse.


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