How to Know When a Bear Market is Over

September 16, 2016 10:17 AM

Farmers are facing a tough road ahead and could be seeing a bull market in 2018, said Bob Utterback of Utterback Marketing on AgDay.

That will be the best time to see a rally of “some sort of significance,” according to Utterback. Before that happens, the bear market needs to end.

So how do you know when a bear market is over? Utterback offers four items to look for to signify the end:

  1. Either net funds or hedge funds in corn, beans, wheat, oil, and meal have a net open interest of more than 300,000 contracts net short. Essentially, funds are short.
  2. Reduce acres to take those acres out of production.
  3. In April, the next time prices of $4.25 or $4.50 feel pressure, farmers should empty their bins.
  4. Sell the board.

Utterback doesn’t think all these conditions will happen at once, there needs to be pain before prosperity.

Fall is a great time to prepare for the next years’ market, and Utterback advises farmers to reduce costs and cash rents, as well as taking the time to work with landlords. One of the main elements to get through to the bull market would be to be fiscally conservative.

Back to news


Spell Check

9/19/2016 09:01 AM

  Reduce costs and reduce cash rents??? What utterback really means is rape the land ( no fertilizer) and give up the high cash rent ground. Say what you mean you big dummy. Why not reduce production because that's the only solution to $3.00 corn. Why is it that the only people who think that over production is the is in their best interest is the farmer?


Corn College TV Education Series


Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!


Market Data provided by
Brought to you by Beyer