The election is less than three weeks away, and analysts are taking bets on how the election outcome could impact the stock market.
According to the Stock Traders Almanac, bear markets and recessions tend to start in the first two years of a president’s term, while bull markets and prosperous times come in the latter half.
Chip Nellinger of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, the U.S. dollar index could take a hit from both sides going into the election.
He believes if Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton wins, the dollar could become stronger, easing money policy. On the other hand, if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins, the dollar could drop from a “gut reaction” due to fear of his potential trade policies. However, that could give commodities support.
“The election could have some major implications in the short run,” said Nellinger. “It could cause a lot of volatility in the financial markets and currency markets, which could definitely spill into our markets.”
Heading into the election, the U.S. dollar is gaining strength, rising close to 3 percent in the first half of October.