H&P Report: Mostly Neutral

September 28, 2012 09:23 AM
 

USDA's Sept. 1 hog inventory came in just a tick under expectations, as did the number of market hogs. The breeding herd number was in line with the average pre-report guess. As a result, the report is mostly neutral as it pertains to market price action.

However, there are some interesting numbers in the market hog inventory categories. We suspected the recent surge in pork production was due to liquidation of sows, but with the inventory of heavyweight hogs (as of Sept. 1) up 5% from year-ago and the breeding herd steady with year-ago, that's strong evidence sow liquidation wasn't as heavy as believed. Looking forward, hog slaughter, barring heavy sow liquidation, should run close to year-ago levels into the first quarter of 2013.

Summer farrowings and fall/winter farrowing intentions signal hog producers will scale back pig production. But with farrowing house efficiency still climbing, even a 2% decline in farrowings could give us another steady pig crop in the quarter ahead.

Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report

USDA

Avg. trade guess

Range

% of year-ago

All Hogs and Pigs

100

100.7

99.0-101.7

Kept for breeding

100

99.9

98.5-100.8

Kept for marketing

100

100.8

99.0-101.9

June-Aug pig crop

100

100.2

99.8-100.9

June-Aug pigs per litter

101

100.9

100.5-101.4

June-Aug farrowings

99

99.2

98.7-100.1

Sept-Nov farrowing int.

97

98.7

97.6-99.7

Dec-Feb farrowing int.

99

98.4

97.3-100.3

Hogs under 50 lbs.

99

99.9

99.0-101.0

Hogs 50 to 119 lbs.

99

100.1

98.0-101.8

Hogs 120-179

101

100.8

99.0-102.9

Hogs 180 and over

105

102.6

100.5-104.9

Link to full report.


Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close