H&P Report View as Mostly Neutral

June 28, 2013 09:24 AM
 

This afternoon's Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report showed the U.S. hog herd as of June 1 came in just barely below year-ago in terms of total numbers. Of the total inventory, market hogs and breeding hogs are virtually unchanged from year-ago. Traders were anticipating a slight uptick in the total number of hogs, with a modest increase in market hog numbers.

The steady-with-year-ago spring pig crop is the result of a 2% drop in March-May farrowings and a 2% increase in pigs per litter. With optimism in the hog industry building, producers indicated intentions to hold summer farrowings steady with year-ago and to increase fall farrowings by only 1%. But, if market hog prices remain firm and feed prices soften, we wonder if second-half farrowing intentions in this report won't prove to be light. With most of the report numbers coming in close to the average pre-report guesses, the data is mostly neutral for hog futures. Most of traders' focus will be on the cash and product markets as they watch for signs of a seasonal top.

 

Quarterly H&P Report

USDA

Avg. trade guess

Range

% of year-ago

 

All Hogs and Pigs

100

100.6

100.0-101.2

Kept for breeding

100

99.9

99.6-100.3

Kept for marketing

100

100.7

100.0-101.3

Mar-May pig crop

100

100.1

99.2-100.7

Mar-May pigs per litter

102

101.0

99.9-101.3

Mar-May farrowings

98

99.1

99.0-99.2

June-Aug farrowing int.

100

99.9

99.2-101.2

Sept-Nov farrowing int.

101

100.5

100.2-101.6

Hogs under 50 lbs.

99

100.6

99.2-101.4

Hogs 50 to 119 lbs.

100

100.5

100.1-101.6

Hogs 120-179

101

100.8

100.4-101.7

Hogs 180 and over

101

100.5

100.2-101.0

 


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