ICAC Lowers Global Cotton Consumption Forecast, Raises Carryover

November 1, 2011 10:12 AM

The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has lowered its estimate of 2011-12 global cotton consumption for 2011-12 from last month due to a slowdown in global economic growth, although it still anticipates slight growth from last season. ICAC increased its global production forecast from last month and sees carryover up 2.27 million metric tons (MMT) from last month at 11.288 MMT.

Global cotton trade is expected to increase by a moderate 2% to 7.8 MMT in 2011-12, driven by an
increase in Chinese imports, says ICAC. While U.S. exports are projected to drop by 23% to 2.4 MMT due to reduced supplies, exports from Australia and Brazil could rise to record levels. It left India’s exports at 1.1 MMT.

ICAC says the stocks-to-use ratio in the world outside China is expected to rise from 46% to 55%, which could translate into a significant decline in the season-average Cotlook A Index.

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