The International Grain Council has raised its estimate of 2011-12 total grain carryover by 15 million metric tons (MMT) from last month to 360 MMT, which is still 8 MMT below year-ago. The group raised its estimate of global wheat carryover by 9 MMT to 202 MMT (195 MMT last year) and raised its global corn carryover estimate by 4 MMT to 123 MMT (131 MMT last year).
"As the increase in the grains consumption forecast is smaller than that for production, global stocks at the end of 2011-12 are placed higher than before," states IGC. "Moreover, carry-in levels are also revised upwards, especially in the U.S. and Russia, further lifting the end-season forecast... While wheat ending stocks are projected to be at their highest since 2001-02, further falls are in prospect for maize (corn) and barley. The grains trade forecast is raised by 6 MMT to 250 MMT, matching the 2008-09 record. Import forecasts have been lifted for wheat in particular, with competitively-priced offers from Russia and other Black Sea region origins appearing to generate additional demand."