The International Grain Council (IGC) has lowered its estimates of global 2012-13 corn and wheat carryover from last month, resulting in a 6-million-metric-ton (MMT) drop in total grains carryover to 332 MMT, down from to 372 MMT last season.
IGC says the forecast for 2012-13 world wheat and coarse grains production was trimmed another 9 MMT due to downward revisions for Russian and Australian wheat, as well as EU wheat and corn crops. "The total is now forecast to be down 4% year-over-year," it says. "Maize (corn) inventories are projected down by 17 MMT year-over-year to a six-year low. The barley market is also particularly tight as stocks have declined for three consecutive years."
IGC says planting of northern hemisphere winter grains is underway and they tentatively forecast 2013-14 production 2% higher than last year, driven by firmer prices and a recovery from weather-damaged crops in 2012-13.
The group also introduced its first global soybean supply and demand projections, calling for an 8% recovery in output in 2012-13, which hinges on a sharp recovery to record levels in South America "for which favorable weather conditions will be critical."