IGC Lowers 2012-13 Total Grains Carryover

November 29, 2012 02:50 AM
 

The International Grain Council (IGC) has lowered its projection of 2012-13 total grains carryover by 4 MMT to 324 MMT (369 MMT in 2011-12). While the group increased its total grains production forecast by 1 MMT, it raised usage to tighten carryover.

While IGC raised 2012-12 global wheat carryover by 1 MMT to 173 MMT (196 MMT in 2011-12), it trimmed its global corn carryover forecast by 1 MMT to 116 MMT (134 MMT in 2011-12). IGC also raised its global soybean carryover forecast by 1 MMT to 28 MMT (24 MMT in 2011-12).

Regarding its outlook for 2013-14, it says high prices could spur a 2% increase in total wheat harvested area, although it notes the condition of the U.S. crop is concerning.

Additional IGC report highlights:

Wheat -

  • Wheat prices have stayed firm, with crop concerns offset by higher than anticipated exports from the Black Sea region.
  • Following slight revisions for Australia and the EU, the forecast for world wheat production is trimmed by 1 MMT, to 654 MMT, a 6% y/y decline.
  • While global consumption is also expected to fall 2% y/y, stocks are still set to contract by 23 MMT y/y.
  • Stronger-than-anticipated early season imports by China and Iran contribute to a 2 MMT increase in the world trade forecast, but it is still sharply lower than last season.

Corn -

  • Maize prices have rallied m/m on revived export hopes in the U.S., combined with tightening old-crop supplies and adverse planting weather in South America.
  • The northern hemisphere harvest is almost complete, with sharp y/y declines in the U.S., Ukraine and EU, but output in the southern hemisphere is still expected to reach a new
    record.
  • Smaller world supplies will cap feed and industrial demand, with total use forecast to decline for the first time in 19 years.
  • Stocks will be tight in 2012-13, especially in the four major exporters, where carryovers may fall to a 16-year low.

Soybeans -

  • Soybean prices weakened during November as better-than-anticipated U.S. yields and slow export demand outweighed support from South American crop concerns.
  • World soybean ending stocks are forecast to recover in 2012-13, led by inventory accumulation in major exporters, but this hinges on forecasts for record crops in South
    America.
  • Global soyabean imports are set to expand by 5% y/y, mainly on larger shipments to China.
  • Global rapeseed/canola output is forecast at a four-year low of 58.9 MMT in 2012-13, with high prices likely to deter imports, global trade is set to contract by 15% y/y.

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