The International Grain Council (IGC) has raised its estimate of total global grain stocks by 3 million metric tons (MMT) to 383 MMT (379 MMT in 2011-12). The group lowered global wheat carryover by 2 MMT from last month to 206 MMT (210 MMT in 2011-12) and raised its global corn stocks estimate by 6 MMT to 135 MMT (128 MMT 2011-12).
The group says an increase in 2012 plantings is forecast to lift world corn production by 4%. "World supplies could top 1 billion metric tons for the first time, with exportable availabilities more comfortable due to bigger crops in the U.S. and Ukraine," it says. "Demand is forecast to increase by around 3%, led by higher feed use. Little change in industrial use is expected due to a slowdown in the U.S. ethanol sector. End-of-season stocks may increase for the first time in four years, including a rebound in the U.S. World trade is projected to increase by around 6%."
Regarding the wheat situation, IGC says the forecast of world wheat production was cut by 5 MMT 676 MMT -- some 19 MMT below the previous year’s record. "The EU crop forecast is reduced sharply due to reports of worse than expected winter damage and recent dry conditions," it says. "Growth in food and industrial use is expected to be outweighed by a fall in feed, but total world consumption is forecast to show only a limited decline. The forecast of world stocks at the end of 2012-13 is cut by 2 MMT, to 206 MMT. Having reached a new peak of 140 MMT in the past year, reduced imports for feed could see global wheat trade slump by about 5 MMT, but much will depend on the level of feed wheat prices relative to maize."