IGC Raises 2013-14 Grain Production Forecast

May 31, 2013 06:05 AM

International Grains Council today raised its 2013-14 total grains production forecast by 10 MMT to 1.916 billion MT, which is a 130-MMT increase from year-ago.

IGC explains, "Although there is continued uncertainty about harvest prospects in some major producers, global wheat availabilities are still set to be ample over the year ahead. Delays to planting due to overly wet weather in the U.S. have heavily influenced trade in maize and soybeans markets, with speculation over potentially lower yields and the possibility of some area switching. However, the prospect for still-bumper U.S. crops remained a mild underlying bearish influence for both markets."

The council also cited tight corn and soybean stocks and Argentine soybean shipping delays as tigtening the spread for old/new-crop futures for both corn and soybeans.

Total grain production is expected to rise by 7% from year-ago, and consumption is expected to rebound by 4%. Total grains carryover is expected to rise by around 33 MMT from year-ago to 367 MMT. This is up 6 MMT from last month.

IGC raised its global wheat production estimate by 2 MMT from last month to 682 MMT. Global wheat carryover is expected to to total 180 MMT in 2013-14, which is down 1 MMT from month-ago but up 2 MMT from last year.

IGC projects global 2013-14 corn production at 945 MMT, which is up 6 MMT from its forecast last month. This would be an 89 MMT increase over the 2012-13 marketing year.

Global soybean production is forecast at 267 MMT by IGC, which is up 2 MMT from its estimate last month and up 28 MMT from 2012-13.


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