IGC Raises Global Total Grains Carryover

August 30, 2013 04:03 AM



The International Grain Council (IGC) has raised its 2013-14 global total grains carryover forecast by 3 MMT to 365 MMT, which represents a 37-MMT increase from last season to return within 1 MMT of 2011-12 levels. IGC left global wheat ending stocks unchanged at 176 MMT (174 MMT in 2012-13) and raised total global corn carryover by 2 MMT to 150 MMT (121 MMT in 2012-13). IGC lowered its 2013-14 soybean carryover forecast by 1 MMT to 32 MMT, which represents a 6 MMT increase from the previous season.

For wheat, IGC raised its global production forecast by 4 MMT to 691 MMT due to increases for China, the EU, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. For corn, it raised its global production forecast by 3 MMT to 945 MMT, led by an increase in the United States.

In an accompanying report on soybean planting prospects in Brazil for 2013-14, IGC says it expects acreage to rise by 5% to a record 29 million hectares. IGC says higher soybean acreage is likely due to competitive prices for soybeans to competing crops and the depreciation of the Brazilian currency. The report states, "In addition to the potential for increased cultivation in central and eastern regions, due to the conversion of pasture lands for example, part of any increase in Brazil’s soybean plantings in 2013-14 is likely to result from farmers switching from main, or full, season maize in southern areas. With seeding of the maize crop in southern regions already having been delayed by cold weather, and with reports suggesting that domestic values barely cover production costs in some areas, this could be a key factor in encouraging farmers to plant more soybeans later this year. This is especially likely in the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul."

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