IGC Sees Slight Growth in 2012-13 Total Grains Carryover

The International Grain Council (IGC) has issued its first estimates of 2012-13, calling for a 6-million-metric-ton (MMT) improvement in total global grain stocks from the current season.

For 2011-12, IGC trimmed its global wheat carryover estimate by 1 MMT to 210 and sees 2012-13 global wheat carryover tightening by 2 MMT to 208 MMT. But the group sees global 2012-13 corn production climbing by 36 MMT from this season to 900 MMT and 2012-13 carryover climbing by 7 MMT to 129 MMT.

"Due to favorable pricing and good potential returns, total (corn) plantings are expected to reach an all-time high (in 2012-13) and, based on normal growing weather and trend yields, output is projected to increase by 4% from last year, to 900 MMT," says IGC. "Rising meat demand will support feed use, but competition from lower grade wheat and barley will again be a factor. Growth in industrial use is likely to be slower than in recent years: starch production in China will increase further, but U.S. ethanol production is forecast to dip because of stalling domestic and export demand. Global stocks are projected to increase modestly as a rise in the U.S. more than offsets declines in China and Brazil. Supported by rising feed demand and a further increase in imports by China, global trade is projected to climb by 6 MMT to 100 MMT."