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IGC Trims Global Total Grain Carryover Forecast

08:13AM Aug 01, 2013



The International Grain Council (IGC) has trimmed its forecast for 2013-14 global total grains carryover by 6 MMT from last month to 362 MMT (329 MMT in 2012-13). The group trimmed global wheat carryover by 5 MMT to 176 MMT (175 MMT in 2012-13) and trimmed global corn carryover by 1 MMT to 148 MMT (120 MMT in 2012-13). Meanwhile, IGC raised its 2013-14 global soybean carryover forecast by 1 MMT to 34 MMT (26 MMT in 2012-13).

While IGC raised its global wheat production forecast by 1 MMT from last month, it also raised consumption by 4 MMT. For corn, IGC lowered its global production forecast by 4 MMT and trimmed consumption by 1 MMT, although still sees stronger year-over-year demand due to a crop recovery in the United States. Regarding its corn balance sheet, IGC states, "As consumption is seen rising by 5% y/y, world stocks will be rebuilt in 2013-14, with inventories in the four main exporters forecast at a nine-year high. Global trade is forecast at a six-year high, with China a much larger buyer, but is unlikely to match the 2007-08 record as good crop prospects in some countries will cap overall import needs."