IGC Trims Global Total Grains Carryover

January 17, 2013 03:16 AM

The International Grains Council (IGC) has trimmed its projection for 2012-13 total global grains carryover by 2 MMT from last month to 322 MMT (367 MMT in 2011-12). The group raised its global wheat carryover peg by 1 MMT to 174 MMT (196 MMT in 2011-12) and trimmed its global corn carryover projection by 3 MMT to 113 MMT (133 MMT in 2011-12). IGC raised its global 2012-13 soybean carryover peg by 1 MMT to 29 MMT (23 MMT in 2012-13).

IGC raised its global wheat production projection by 2 MMT from last month to 656 MMT, but this is still down from 696 MMT last season. Regarding 2013-14 wheat prospects that went into dormancy in very tough shape, it states, "Analysis shows little correlation between reported end-November crop conditions and final yields, but as the rating for the current crop is at an historical low, it is uncharted territory." However, it says elsewhere, prospects are generally more promising and global output is tentatively projected up 4% year over year for 2013-14, with a 2% increase in area.

IGC raised its global corn production projection by 5 MMT from last month to 845 MMT due to upward revisions for China, the U.S. and Argentina, but this is still down from 877 MMT last season.

Regarding its soybean outlook, the IGC says, "World soybeans markets have softened over the month as early pressure from improved weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil was only partly offset by recent speculative fund buying, strong export demand and renewed concerns about dryness in parts of South America. Record crops in the region underpin the forecast for a recovery in global inventories."



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