Important Day of Trade Ahead

July 5, 2012 01:45 AM

Important day ahead. Today is an important day for the grain markets, as trends are known to accelerate or reverse following the July 4th holiday. If grain markets end the day higher, it points to more near-term price strength, but if the market is lower, it would suggest a near-term high has been posted. Weather is the main driving force in the markets right now, but global developments will also influence price direction today.

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Overnight highlights. Grain and livestock markets are set to open at 9:30 a.m., CT.

Corn: Higher. Futures are expected to be higher from the ongoing hot and dry footprint across the Corn Belt as the crop begins to pollinate. There is some relief in the form of milder temps headed to the Midwest next week, with some rain also expected. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index is sharply higher this morning, which could limit buying in the corn pit.

Soybeans: Higher. As mentioned in corn commentary, hot and dry conditions are stressing crops and expected to bolster futures on the open. And while the U.S. Dollar index is stronger this morning, China unexpectedly cut interest rates and the European Central Bank is expected to announce a rate cut this morning -- further helping to support grain futures.

Wheat: Higher. Wheat remains in a follower's role and is expected to benefit from spillover from neighboring pits. But wheat is sharply overbought and due for a corrective sell-off. Given concerns about the corn crop, wheat is seeing support as it competes as a feed ingredient.

Live cattle: Steady to weaker. Futures are expected to be pressured this morning by dollar strength and Tuesday's lower beef prices. Choice beef values were $1.41 lower and select was down 25 cents, although movement was strong at 277 loads.

Lean Hogs: Steady to weaker. Futures are expected to start the day under pressure amid dollar strength and from weakness in the pork cutout market. Pork values slipped $2.29 yesterday on very strong movement of 140.5 loads.


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