Inputs Monitor Illinois Basis Analysis

September 12, 2012 11:35 AM
 

Inputs Monitor Illinois basis stands at $3.67 on a state-state comparison of local fertilizer prices. Regional nutrient basis stands at $1.67 for the last week of August, 2012. The table below is a side-by-side comparison of prices reported by USDA and prices reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ending August 31, 2012. Inputs Monitor's Illinois numbers and Inputs Monitor Regional Index numbers are compared separately to USDA findings.

The widest basis in this Illinois comparison is in UAN28 where USDA pegs the price per ton at $363.00; Inputs Monitor records a 12% difference to the high side at $408.00. Beyond that, all other values come in at or below +/-5%. Anhydrous USDA price came in at %829.17 with Inputs Monitor pricing index off by -2% at $818.00.

When compared with the Inputs Monitor Regional Index total average for the week, basis tends to shrink coming in 1.67% to the good. Anhydrous was off by -3% at $812.75 compared to USDA's $829.17. Here again we see the Inputs Monitor and USDA spread at +/-5%.

8/31/12 USDA vs Monitor USDA, IL Inputs Mon., IL +/- % Inputs Mon., Index +/- %
Anhydrous 829.17 818 -2% 812.75 -3%
UAN28 363 408 +12% 373.34 +3%
DAP 616 632 +3% 643.08 +5%
MAP 630 643 +2% 651.34 +4%
Potash 590.71 606 +3% 605.50 +2.5%
Farm Diesel 3.70 3.84 +4% 3.65 -1.5
Basis     +3.67   +1.67

(Prices for LP and urea were omitted by USDA from their survey, and, therefore, do not appear in this analysis.)

Earlier this week, Pro Farmer Editor Chip Flory advised the following:

"Do your homework in this market. If anhydrous is being moved in the Midwest, it's likely below advertised prices. That's usually the case at this time of the year as retailers try to figure out just how much demand there will be in their area.

Quick harvest will widen the window of opportunity to apply anhydrous this fall, but warmer-than-normal temperatures and exceptionally dry soils in most Midwest locations will curb farmers' enthusiasm for fall application.

The wholesale-retail price spread has narrowed considerably this summer as retailers booked anticipated fall needs after an active spring-2012 application season. Retailer supplies are relatively tight, so if soil conditions (and weather in general) improve to encourage fall anhydrous applications, this retail market is undoubtedly set to move higher.

We expect a typical seasonal market ahead: Some retail price increases during the fall application season, followed by some price softness during the winter before prices once again firm into the spring application season."

Click here for Chip's updated Inputs advice.

Keep an eye on your Inputs Monitor at profarmer.com, and look for more basis and pricing updates as information becomes available.


 

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