Inputs Monitor Regional Index -- Nutrient Moves Lower, 32% & Farm Diesel Firm

June 10, 2013 05:00 AM

Nutrient pricing continued declines during the report week. Declines out paced gains by a margin of 12.29 as declines totaled 13.106 to gains' 0.814. This bearish track is due to weak demand supported by strong production, and despite a number of experts preaching extra nitrogen, field work has been halted in much of the Midwest by mud in the fields.

December corn futures softened slightly -- opening today at $5.51 -- and trends suggest positive price movement in corn futures can firm retail nutrient pricing. At a projected yield of 160bu/acre, current Dec corn pricing adds up to $841.60/acre in new-crop revenue. natgas6 10

Natural gas pricing is currently below $3.91 which was our signal level for a buying opportunity. We issued an alert last week when prices fell below $3.95 and the July contract has stayed put below $3.90 into today. Currently (10 am CT) at $3.85 after opening today at $3.84. Look to book natgas for dryer needs today, but if your appetite for risk will take it, a move below $3.80 would signal downside potential to $3.70 and then $3.60. But if traders find a buy-in opportunity at these levels, the contract could easily run up past $4.00 again with upside potential to $4.40.

Declines of Note --

Missouri sports some decent declines in this week's index. MO anhydrous fell $22.65 to $759.05/ton. Phosphate pricing in MO also fell strongly -- DAP softened $19.56 to $604.81 and MAP fell $29.11 to $626.69. All of these values are well below the regional averages and signal a chance to book some anhydrous for fall or for sidedress in Missouri.

Nebraska also notes declines in anhydrous where the average price fell $22.65/ton to $759.05. Again, these prices are below regional averages, signaling a buying opportunity in Nebraska.

Upward movement was found again in farm diesel and also in potash and 32% solution.

Farm diesel pricing has shown a tendency to move higher through the summer and last week's report captured the turnaround. Prices are expected to move higher before moving lower again, but so far, gains have been mild and there is still time in some states to book farm diesel below $3.40. In case you missed it, read your Monitor's article on booking farm diesel.

Potash pricing took a surprising step toward the upside, but all gains were less than $4.00/ton and we do not expect much of an upside run for potash near-term.

UAN32 also moved higher, but only by 43 cents/ton in the regionwide index. The uptick was fueled largely by an increase of $8.07 week-over in Illinois where some areas are dry enough for supplemental nitrogen applications and that is driving demand for 32%.


Anhydrous moved $4.25 lower to $864.82; UAN28 $1.60 lower to $399.26; UAN32 firms, adding $0.43 this week to $438.97; Urea moved $4.14 lower to $559.37.

DAP $2.57 lower to $630.03 along with a $0.54 decrease in MAP to $648.98.

Potash firms $0.38 to $579.67/ton.

Farm diesel $0.004 higher this week at $3.435; LP down slightly, shaving $0.006 off the regional price to $1.440/gallon.

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