Inputs Monitor Regional Index -- Nutrient Stagnant, 32% Firms

July 1, 2013 10:58 AM

Nutrient all but leveled off during the report week suggesting a bottom may be in place. But market factors have led industry experts to believe there may be more downside action to come. Gains added $2.70 while declines led index movement with $4.512 to the downside for a margin of 1.812 in favor of declines. Suppliers have indicated they are waiting for the right time to resupply for fall, and N prices continue to slide.

Almost all of the pricing movements during the week were within a five dollar range with the Index composite falling just twenty cents.

Gains of Note --

Upward movement was very limited, but UAN32 jumped $27.78 to a statewide average of $450.00 in South Dakota. MAP added $10.34 in Michigan to $691.91. Illinois added $10.09 to the statewide anhydrous price to $872.40.

Declines of Note --

Despite increases in UAN32, South Dakota sported some decent declines including a $13.85 falloff in MAP to $633.54 and an $18.57 slide in Urea to $521.33. Both of the Dakotas saw significant declines in LP each falling 7 cents to $1.32.

December corn futures opened today at $5.06 after pivoting around $5.40 for most of last week. Dec corn at these prices would fetch $769.60/acre in new-crop revenue and the NH3/ZCZ spread lies at $89.97. Our NH3/ZCZ spread calculates the margin between 1 short ton of anhydrous and 1 acre of expected new-crop revenue based on December 13 corn futures (ZCZ13).

Front-month natural gas futures opened today at $3.54 as EIA reported better than expected news of injections into storage and lackluster demand for power generation. But as the industry expects natgas to average $3.68 for the last half of 2013, we may see this downside action flip to the upside as a correction if the summer turns hotter and dry.


Regionally --

Anhydrous moved $0.25 higher to $859.57; UAN28 $0.65 lower to $399.31; UAN32 firms another $2.37 this week to $444.20; Urea moved $3.75 lower to $553.30.

DAP 6 cents lower to $628.58 along with an 8 cent increase in MAP to $648.48.

Potash softens 4 cents to $580.50/ton.

Farm diesel $0.009 lower this week at $3.401; LP down slightly, shaving $0.011 off the regional price to $1.404/gallon.

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