Inputs Monitor Regional Index: Anhydrous Comes in Hot

August 26, 2013 05:32 AM

Decliners tallied $43.56 to gains' 45 1/4 cents. All upward movement was confined to Farm diesel and potash, of all things.tirestandsby

Anhydrous moved strongly lower in some states including a $14.30 slide in Kansas to $627.69, $34.91 lower in Iowa to $706.06, $48.45 lower in North Dakota to $700.34 and Ohio anhydrous comes in HOT, fading $123.16 to post a fresh anhydrous price point at $828.89 -- finally within $100.00 of the regional average. We expect general declines to continue in the medium-term and we may find ourselves booking NPK for fall on a downhill slope with prices bottoming sometime after the new year.

As always, check your appetite for risk. December corn looks pretty buoyant today, and results from Pro Farmer's Midwest Crop Tour were positive for expected yield, but scouts and analysts alike were quick to point out that their measurements tallied potential yield, and that the weather conditions from here on out will make or break this crop. This as we open this week under a heat dome that threatens to seal heat in and precipitation out of the areas that most need some timely rains.zcz138 26

If all of that conspires to elevate December corn, look for nutrient to follow. Fertilizer manufacturers have made it no secret that crop revenues are expected to decline in the next few years. They will look to capture a Dec corn pop if they can. If you believe that to be the case, prices are in the 'go-zone' for anhydrous in Iowa, Kansas and North Dakota. Nebraska and Missouri are priced favorably as well.

Manage your risk by booking portions along the way, and if your local supplier is priced within your personal 'go-zone', don't be afraid to pull the trigger on 25-30% of fall needs. Having said that, I still believe, as do others, that nutrient has very limited upside potential between now and fall, but again, watch out for an unexpected pop in December corn to throw a wrench in fertilizer pricing.

Farm diesel moved 1/4 cent higher in regionwide averages led mostly by an increase of a dime in North Dakota to $3.59 with 5 of 12 states unchanged. We will have all the details on that and retail gasoline and highway diesel in today's Weekly Fuel Report. Look for it on your Inputs Monitor this afternoon.

September natural gas is working on moving higher, posting a double top Thursday and Friday at $3.56, marking that as strong, near-term resistance. Next resistance lies at June 26's daily high of $3.656 and June 18's daily high of $3.833. A move through those levels suggests a return to pivots at $3.91. Given expected increases of demand for air conditioning and power burn as the nation's midsection heats up, downside action for natgas nearbys is very limited. We will know more when storage numbers are released later this week by EIA.


Regionally --

Anhydrous falls $19.71 to $752.62; UAN28 falls $7.93 week-over to $355.67; UAN32 softens $4.44 to $393.81; Urea falls $3.27 to $508.77.

DAP $1.27 lower to $583.33; MAP softens $6.93 to $610.45. Potash firms 45 cents to $538.25.

Farm diesel up slightly again, adding another 1/4 cent to $3.421 -- 23 cents below year-ago. LP 1 1/4 cents lower at $1.388 -- 7 3/4 cents above year-ago.

Week-over Change
Current Week
Farm Diesel

Photo credit: D. Michaelsen, Inputs Monitor


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