Inputs Monitor Regional Index: Anhydrous Looks to Level Off

September 16, 2013 04:57 AM
 

suncornDecliners tallied $102.38 to gains' 3 1/4 cents. Anhydrous showed its strongest signs of leveling off yet. The numbers a little deceiving here, as anhydrous did give another $21.97 in the retail average, but that decline was among 8 of 12 states either unchanged or higher on the week.

For the first time since your Monitor began collecting data over a year ago, the Index Composite fell below 400.00 last week and the downward trend continued into this week with the Inputs Monitor Composite now at 386.223. The composite calculates the overall trend in nutrient pricing and currently stands 15.3% below year-ago.

The only upward movement was found in the regional average farm diesel price which added 3 1/4 cents to $3.461. Look for a complete rundown of farm diesel pricing in today's Gasoline and Diesel Weekly on your Inputs Monitor.

The table below outlines anhydrous action for the report week which shows a slowdown in NH3's sharp downtrend. Four states registered declines including a $55.89 falloff in North Dakota and Illinois shucking $46.03 to $716.42. Beyond that, Ohio fell 7 bucks to $800 even and Iowa softened $1.64 to $672.42. All other states were unchanged or moved slightly higher with Missouri adding $18.40/ton.

We expect downside room for Indiana which stands head and shoulders above all other states' prices. We may see Indiana NH3 slide as much as $150/ton in the coming week, and Ohio still wears a conspicuous $800 handle. These two states have the highest potential for price breaks while all others are at or near the floor.

State NH3
Previous Week
Change
Current Week
Iowa
$672.42
-$1.64
$670.78
Illinois
$781.06
-$46.03
$735.03
Indiana
$856.90
unchanged
$856.90
Wisconsin
$745.00
unchanged
$745.00
Minnesota
$682.04
unchanged
$682.04
South Dakota
$700.00
unchanged
$700.00
North Dakota
$772.31
-$55.89
$716.42
Nebraska
$610.35
+$1.03
$611.38
Missouri
$657.26
+$18.40
$675.66
Kansas
$612.67
+$0.24
$612.91
Ohio
$807.32
-$7.32
$800.00
Michigan
$695.00
unchanged
$695.00

 

December corn futures opened today at $4.58 3/4 and struck resistance at $4.61 3/4. Weekend rains were appreciated where they fell, but will not do much to help out this year's corn crop. However, the market refuses to build premium and despite high trader volume this morning, this crop is still under the commodities radar. To the good however, low corn prices will help to limit fertilizer pricing as NPK declines exhaust downside potential.

-----------------------------

Regionally --

Anhydrous falls $21.97 to $694.05; UAN28 falls $8.32 week-over to $328.66; UAN32 softens $17.48 to $357.95; Urea falls $20.51 to $477.05.

DAP $20.88 lower to $530.41; MAP softens $12.33 to $571.97. Potash down 89 cents to $510.99.

Farm diesel up 3 1/4 cents to $3.461 -- 22 cents below year-ago. LP 1/4 cent lower at $1.432 -- 10 1/4 cents above year-ago.

Nutrient/Fuel
9/3/13
9/9/13
Week-over Change
Current Week
Year-Ago
Anhydrous
$737.36
$716.02
-$21.97
$694.05
$817.00
DAP
$565.58
$551.29
-$20.88
$530.41
$639.00
MAP
$599.47
$584.30
-$12.33
$571.97
$643.25
Potash
$519.06
$511.88
-$0.89
$510.99
$606.67
UAN28
$339.14
$336.98
-$8.32
$328.66
$362.73
UAN32
$374.97
$375.43
-$17.48
$357.95
$410.29
Urea
$494.25
$497.56
-$20.51
$477.05
$624.42
Farm Diesel
$3.43
$3.43
+$0.032
$3.461
$3.68
LP
$1.408
$1.435
-$0.003
$1.432
$1.33
Composite
403.856
397.596
-11.37
386.223
456.485

Photo credit: D. Michaelsen, Inputs Monitor

 

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