Inputs Monitor Regional Index: Composite Falls Below $400 for the First Time

September 9, 2013 09:08 AM
 

Decliners tallied $60.14 to gains' $3.79 3/4. Anhydrous continued to slide in areas that had yet to observe declines including a nosedive worth $157.50 in the state of Michigan. The dividecornprogress2398 between states at the floor and those with ground to give is wide in this week's numbers, and while strong declines characterize this analysis, last week's declines led to increases in some states this week.

For the first time since your Monitor began collecting data over a year ago, the Index Composite fell below $400.00 to a Monitor all time low of 397.596. The Index Composite is an average of all values compared to the week before and indicates the general trend in nutrient pricing. Last year at this time, the Composite was at 456.485, a 12.9% reduction year-over.

Increases were observed in LP, UAN32% and urea while farm diesel was unchanged at $3.43.

The table below outlines anhydrous action for the report week which gave some serious ground in key locations -- Ohio finally shook loose and moved lower, but the enthusiasm award goes to the massive falloff in Michigan.

State NH3
Previous Week
Change
Current Week
Iowa
$676.50
-$4.08
$672.42
Illinois
$776.78
+$4.28
$781.06
Indiana
$858.71
-$1.81
$856.90
Wisconsin
$802.35
-$57.35
$745.00
Minnesota
$721.19
-$39.15
$682.04
South Dakota
$712.31
-$12.31
$700.00
North Dakota
$704.10
+$68.21
$772.31
Nebraska
$633.04
-$22.69
$610.35
Missouri
$659.10
-$1.84
$657.26
Kansas
$622.87
-$10.20
$612.67
Ohio
$828.89
-$21.57
$807.32
Michigan
$852.50
-$157.50
$695.00

 

December corn futures opened today at $4.66 and struck resistance at $4.70 and faded as high volume at the falloff indicates a selloff on the bounce. Volume picked up once again late in the day at $4.63 signaling traders' sentiment is for limited upside potential. This year's early corn looks a lot better than later planted fields, and as the early positive harvest numbers come in first, futures will have trouble building premium. This will help to limit fertilizer pricing as NPK declines exhaust downside room to run.

Manage your risk by booking portions along the way, and if your local supplier is priced within your personal 'go-zone', don't be afraid to pull the trigger on anhydrous. A host of factors suggest upside potential for anhydrous, and you may also note a slight uptick in urea pricing this week. Urea may be near a pause at current levels as the Chinese export window is set to close soon with few suppliers anxious to book.

Farm diesel was unchanged in regionwide averages led mostly by a 5 cent increase in Missouri to $3.37 with 5 of 12 states unchanged. We will have all the details on that and retail gasoline and highway diesel in today's Weekly Fuel Report. Look for it on your Inputs Monitor this afternoon.

-----------------------------

Regionally --

Anhydrous falls $21.34 to $716.02; UAN28 falls $2.16 week-over to $336.98; UAN32 firms 46 cents to $375.43; Urea firms $3.31 to $497.56.

DAP $14.29 lower to $551.29; MAP softens $15.17 to $584.30. Potash down $7.18 to $511.88.

Farm diesel unchanged at $3.43 -- 25 cents below year-ago. LP 2 3/4 cents higher at $1.435 -- 10 1/2 cents above year-ago.

Nutrient/Fuel
8/26/13
9/3/13
Week-over Change
Current Week
Year-Ago
Anhydrous
$752.62
$737.36
-$21.34
$716.02
$817.00
DAP
$583.33
$565.58
-$14.29
$551.29
$639.00
MAP
$610.45
$599.47
-$15.17
$584.30
$643.25
Potash
$538.25
$519.06
-$7.18
$511.88
$606.67
UAN28
$355.67
$339.14
-$2.16
$336.98
$362.73
UAN32
$393.81
$374.97
+$0.46
$375.43
$410.29
Urea
$508.77
$494.25
+$3.31
$497.56
$624.42
Farm Diesel
$3.421
$3.43
unchanged
$3.43
$3.68
LP
$1.388
$1.408

+$0.027

$1.435
$1.33
Composite
416.414
403.856
-6.26
397.596
456.485

Photo credit: D. Michaelsen, Inputs Monitor

 

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