Inputs Monitor Regional Index: Farm Diesel and UAN Suggest Reversal

January 13, 2014 07:22 AM

Declines tallied $13.42 3/4 to gains' $10.55 3/4 in the regional averages. This week we travel to Lincoln, Nebraska for our second Pro Farmer Profit Briefing Seminar of the season. The current Nebraska anhydrous price is the lowest in our index at 574.71. Kansas is just a bit above that and Missouri boasts the third lowest NH3 price at $606.00.

Meanwhile, the December 14 corn contract is finding a little strength opening today at $4.57.

Farm diesel looks like it is set to reverse and move to off-season highs. This week marks the first show of price strength we have seen in farm diesel in weeks. Watch for an alert on farm diesel later this week. Indiana farm diesel pricing is still below LP pricing in that state, due largely to increases in propane pricing. But Indiana farm diesel still wears a $2 handle.

Meanwhile, we continue to eye UAN solutions as we suspect they may have put in a low last week. This week's upside action from UAN28% and 32% may lead to an alert here as well.

Since we are on the road Monday and Tuesday of this week, some of our regular reports will be delayed a day or two. But this week's coverage will include The N Files, P&K Today, State-by-State tables and more. Stay tuned and watch for alerts on Farm Diesel and possibly UAN solutions.

Corn Futures --

December 14 corn futures opened today at $4.57 putting expected new-crop revenue at $691.20. With anhydrous priced at $647.70, the ZCZ/NH3 spread lies at -43.50. With corn futures moving higher and nutrient moving lower, fertilizer prices may be coiling to spring higher in the near-term. However, the annual runup in pricing is long overdue. This has been an uncharacteristic year for fertilizer pricing, and nutrient has bucked the trend of annual December increases in fertilizer pricing.

Corn futures continue to limit strength in nutrient pricing and as the December contract remains range-bound, fertilizer has adopted the path of corn futures. But Friday's USDA reports drove futures prices higher on news that supplies are behind expectations. While the climate for major increases in corn is not yet right, sustained upside action could signal the way higher for nutrient.


Regionally --

Anhydrous falls $2.82 to $647.70; UAN28 78 cents higher week-over to $315.82; UAN32 firms $2.51 to $348.44; Urea $2.24 higher to $458.05.

DAP $4.95 higher to $508.37; MAP $3.39 lower to $527.03. Potash falls $6.72 to $466.71.

Farm diesel firms 2 1/2 cents to $3.354 -- 12 cents below year-ago. LP firmed 7 3/4 to $2.08 3/4 -- now 64 cents above year-ago.

Week-over Change
Current Week
Farm Diesel
+2 1/2
$2.00 1/4
+7 3/4 cents






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