Inputs Monitor Regional Index: Holy Moly, the Bottom Fell Out!

July 30, 2013 09:32 AM
 

We have been waiting for retailers to resupply and set fresh pricing points for fall applications and this week marks a falloff in nutrient pricing that was on pace with expectations. Anhydrous, UAN32% and Urea all fell $20 or more with potash not far behind.7 21 13 099 (2)

Decliners tallied $157.63 -- yep... $157.63 in price breaks over last week -- to gains' 3.9 cents.

Fuels contributed solely to price increases, but we expect farm diesel to move higher through the summer months before nosing lower.

Futures --

December corn futures opened Monday at $4.75 and continues to spin its wheels. But an inspired rally in corn could influence nutrient pricing higher. Keep an eye on corn futures and start thinking about fall expenditures within different corn pricing scenarios. My Blog post from two weeks ago titled, "Market Like You Mean It -- They Think I'm Crazy Around Here" is about booking inputs with Dec corn at a low, and will help you with some perspective.

September 2013 natural gas futures opened today at $3.47 marking a 28 cent slide from the same time last week. Natgas is currently at a low as investors are favoring short positions in WTI. But they will be back to natgas and as soon as crude comes back below psychological $100.00. At that point, look for natural gas futures to return to its pivot around $3.91.

If you need to book natural gas, consider booking a portion TODAY as prices are well below expected 2013 averages.

-----------------------------

Regionally --

Anhydrous softened $61.05 to $786.91; UAN28 falls $7.22 week-over to $387.22; UAN32 $23.46 softer at $412.03; Urea falls $21.82 to $525.69.

Nitrogen products fell a combined total of $113.55 during the report week.

DAP $14.09 lower to $613.33; MAP down $12.25 to $630.26. Potash falls $17.74 to $558.23.

Farm diesel up slightly, adding 2 cents to $3.378 -- 19 cents above year-ago. LP firmed 15 cents to $1.499 -- 24 1/2 cents above year-ago.

Nutrient/Fuel
7/15/13
7/22/13
Current Week
Week-over Change
Year-Ago
Anhydrous
$848.77
$847.97
$786.91
-$61.05
$799.50
DAP
$624.45
$627.42
$613.33
-$14.09
$652.25
MAP
$645.87
$642.51
$630.26
-$12.25
$652.92
Potash
$576.29
$575.97
$558.23
-$17.74
$624.83
UAN28
$395.99
$394.44
$387.22
-$7.22
$399.42
UAN32
$435.97
$435.49
$412.03
-$23.46
$502.38
Urea
$544.35
$547.51
$525.69
-$21.82
$687.92
Farm Diesel
$3.355
$3.359
$3.378
+$0.019
$3.17
LP
$1.346
$1.499
$1.34
+0.02
$1.29
Composite
452.935
452.910
435.379
-17.52
480.408

Photo credit: D. Michaelsen, Inputs Monitor

 

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