Inputs Monitor Regional Index: NH3 Slightly Lower as K Perks Up

February 3, 2014 04:16 AM
 

Declines tallied $3.78 to gains' $39.85 in the regional averages. Big movers this week are UAN28%, urea and phosphate which are all higher on the week with NH3 slipping lower. Propane prices fell back from last week's $4.09, but prices range widely across the Central and Northern United States.IMG 0274

We advised last week to increase coverage on UAN, urea and ammonia. We are currently at 80% for spring/summer on UAN and urea and 60% covered on anhydrous ammonia. The technical data suggests more upside risk ahead for UAN solutions and urea and we advise to get current on these. Prices will be higher by spring. Click here to view the ALERT.

Phosphate also got some attention last week and we extended coverage here as well. We are currently at 80% filled on DAP and MAP and prices here continue to gather strength, up for the last three weeks in a row.

Potash perked up only slightly on the week. We are at 30% for spring here and will wait for a more clear signal of upside risk before we add any more spring/summer coverage.

A potentially dangerous winter storm is forecast for most of the Midwest in the coming week and early predictions had snow amounts in parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois around a foot. Forecasters are backing away from figures in that range, but the potential is there for a disruptive storm from the Rockies to the East Coast starting on Tuesday with ice predicted in parts south and east. Check your local forecast today and pick up an extra gallon of milk.

Corn Futures --

December 14 corn futures closed Friday at $4.50 -- that's 1/2 cent higher than the previous Friday's close, putting expected new-crop revenue 80 cents firmer on the week at $680.00. With anhydrous priced at $646.49 this week, the ZCZ/NH3 spread widened 4.31 points and now lies at -33.51.

The narrowing of the spread between anhydrous and expected new-crop revenue is due to a slight increase in corn futures pricing and a slight decease in regional anhydrous pricing.

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Regionally --

Anhydrous softens $3.51 to $646.49; UAN28 $9.05 higher week-over to $335.25; UAN32 firms $3.70 to $363.17; Urea $13.05 higher to $485.46.

DAP $5.41 higher to $520.24; MAP $8.47 higher to $541.69. Potash firms eleven cents to $461.83.

Farm diesel firms 6 3/4 cents to $3.46.3/4 -- now 3 3/4 cents above year-ago. LP softened 27 cents to $3.82 -- now $2.38 cents above year-ago.

Nutrient/Fuel
1/20/14
1/27/14
Week-over Change
Current Week
Anhydrous
$650.48
$650.00
-$3.51
$646.49
DAP
$508.43
$514.83
+$5.41
$520.24
MAP
$530.43
$533.22
+$8.47
$541.69
Potash
$463.77
$461.72
+$0.11
$461.83
UAN28
$326.26
$326.20
+$9.05
$335.25
UAN32
$350.73
$359.47
+$3.70
$363.17
Urea
$465.11
$472.41
+$13.05
$485.46
Farm Diesel
$3.40 1/2
$3.40
+6 3/4 cents
$3.46 3/4
LP
$2.05 1/2
$4.09
- 27 cents
$3.82
Composite
366.712
369.270
+7.225
373.495

 


 Photo credit: D. Michaelsen, Inputs Monitor

 

 

 

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