Inputs Monitor Regional Index: Nutrient Chases Corn Futures Lower

July 8, 2013 05:40 AM

Nutrient and fuels softened across the board as resupply and meager demand force prices lower. Declines ran the table posting $21.17 in declines to gains' goosegg.


Declines of Note --

A round of resupply has begun at many major suppliers and fresh pricing points have been set in some locations. Other locations are anxious to move what product they have left and have priced accordingly. We see an opportunity to fill a portion of fall nutrient at the present time. Check your local pricing against the table below -- which now includes the year-over price.

Missouri led the downward charge declining $50.00 in UAN32 to $410.00, $25.27 in Urea to $549.14, $17.06 in Potash to $555.32, $15.21 in DAP to $608.15, $13.43 in Anhydrous to $811.14 and 13 cents in Farm diesel to $3.22.

Indiana moved boldly lower shucking $21.54 from the Anhydrous price to $882.33 -- still roughly $30 above the regional average. Indiana Urea down $12.61 to $568.15, Potash $9.53 lower to $577.80 and Hoosier LP fell 11 cents to $1.49. These are some sizable declines but all but potash remain above the regional average. This is typical for the Eastern Belt as prices tend to run slightly higher in that area.

North Dakota posted declines in UAN28 and Anhydrous with 28% falling $20.00 even to $390.00 and Anhydrous shedding $11.81 to $849.62.

Other declines of note include a 17 cent slide in the price of Wisconsin LP to $1.22 and a 14 cent drop in Wisconsin Farm diesel to $3.23. Both of these are below the regional average.

Gains of Note --

The only real gain of note was a $12.43 move to the upside in Nebraska Potash. That puts NE K at $620.18 -- $41.23 above the regional average.

Futures -- ZCZ137 8

December corn futures opened today at $5.00 and as we have said before, weakness in December corn suggests downside room for nutrient. However, upstream, declines in ammonia and robust consumption in the last fertilizer year have producers humming. We are currently in an oversupplied urea and potash market and phosphate shipments accounted for nearly 100% of production last year. Corn will rally. I believe USDA has been too optimistic, and negative crop news may inject some spirit into corn, and nutrient by extension.

Check your local pricing, but consider booking a portion of your nutrient needs soon. If your state did not post declines this week, chances are, there is a resupply coming to your area. Wait for those fresh pricing points, and keep an eye on your Inputs Monitor for an alert.natgas7 8

Front-month natural gas futures opened today at $3.62 and moved a dime higher immediately. This may signal the end of Natgas's bear run. A series of net injections to storage and limited demand by the power generation sector pressured prices lower, but temperatures across the Midwest are expected to kick off increased air conditioning use. Resistance is layered at $3.77 and $3.84. A violation of this would signal upside potential to our pivot point of $3.91. A move above $3.91 could send this August contract back near the $4 range.


Regionally --

Anhydrous softened $5.91 to $853.66 -- the current price here is the only nutrient in our index above last year, a full $58.74 over the same time last year. UAN28 falls $2.10 week-over to $397.21; UAN32 $4.88 softer at $439.32 and Urea falls $4.16 to $549.14.

DAP down $1.43 to $627.15; MAP down $1.06 to $647.42. Potash falls $1.55 to $578.95.

Farm diesel fell 4 cents to $3.361 -- 21 cents above year-ago. LP fell 4 cents of its own to $1.365 -- 8 1/2 cents above year-ago.

Current Week
Week-over Change
Previous Year
Farm Diesel




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7/9/2013 03:34 PM

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