Inputs Monitor Regional Index: Nutrient Continues Slide

July 14, 2013 07:39 PM

Nutrient and fuels softened across the board as resupply and meager demand force prices lower. Declines ran the table for the second consecutive week, posting $21.36 in declines to gains' $0.00.

A round of resupply has begun at many major suppliers and fresh pricing points have been set in some locations. Other locations are anxious to move what product they have left and have priced accordingly.

Futures --

December corn futures opened today at $5.07 and as we have said before, weakness in December corn suggests downside room for nutrient. However, upstream, declines in ammonia and robust consumption in the last fertilizer year have producers humming. We are currently in an oversupplied urea and potash market and phosphate shipments accounted for nearly 100% of production last year. Corn will rally. I believe USDA has been too optimistic, and negative crop news may inject some spirit into corn, and nutrient by extension.

Check your local pricing, but consider booking a portion of your nutrient needs soon. If your state did not post declines this week, chances are, there is a resupply coming to your area. Wait for those fresh pricing points, and keep an eye on your Inputs Monitor for an alert.

Front-month natural gas futures opened today at $3.66. This may signal the end of Natgas's bear run. A series of net injections to storage and limited demand by the power generation sector pressured prices lower, but temperatures across the Midwest are expected to kick off increased air conditioning use. Resistance is layered at $3.77 and $3.84. A violation of this would signal upside potential to our pivot point of $3.91. A move above $3.91 could send this August contract back near the $4 range.


Regionally --

Anhydrous softened $4.89 to $848.77; UAN28 falls $1.22 week-over to $395.99; UAN32 $3.35 softer at $435.97 and Urea falls $4.79 to $544.35.

DAP down $2.70 to $624.45; MAP down $1.55 to $645.87. Potash falls $2.66 to $576.29.

Farm diesel fell $0.006 to $3.355 --  18 1/2 cents above year-ago. LP fell 2 cents to $1.346 -- 6 1/2 cents above year-ago.

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